I usually wait to dabble in Awards hyper-mania until later, on the eve of the Oscar nominations. But, in light of recent changes to the Academy's awards set-up, the surge of top 10 lists beginning to be released, and the announcement of the Golden Globe nominees (which is more or less the official kick-off of Awards Season) next Tuesday, I thought I would share my thoughts on what I think of the current state of the Academy Awards, and who I suspect (with help from the Awards Daily people, a great site I highly recommend) could be nominated/win.
Let's start things off with the most obvious topic: Best Picture. Because the Academy has been criticized for being too "narrow," especially with their exclusion of the the second biggest movie of all time from the top prize short list (though The Dark Knight still managed to scrape in 8 nominations, more then The Reader), those snobbish, elite status members have decided to change the rules, instead allowing 10 movies to be nominated for Best Picture.
Back in the days of yore, there used to be up to 10 nominations for Best Picture, until 1944, when the rules changed and the list was shortened to five films. Now, its back to 10, and I have had reservations about this decision from the moment I heard it. While, yes, it means more movies will be nominated, it still doesn't matter because the five movies that don't have corresponding directors nominated in the Best Director category will immediately be eliminated by prognosticators, leaving the obvious short list of 5 still valid. They were still nominated, yes, but it seems more like a way for the Academy to squeeze in comedies and big budget Hollywood movies, which typically don't get nominated these days.
Of course the list of 10 opens up the high possibility that, maybe, one of the five films without a correlating director will win, and if that ever happens, then this decision would be a more exciting one. But, let's face it, very few of the 6,000 Academy members see EVERY picture nominated...and there were only five! Ten? Forget it, they are too busy. They have lives, they can't be expected to view EVERY single nominated film, while someone like me who rarely has anything to do with his January will plunder into the immense depth of the nominees. In short, it is always what is most popular, and any films sans directors will be ignored.
The 10 also takes away the enjoyable element (for me, anyways) of guessing which movies would be nominated. If there were 5, I would maybe pick Up in the Air, Precious, The Hurt Locker, Nine, and Invictus, and label An Education as the dark horse. Having only seen three of those five I still feel it is a solid list. But now the list is opened up so movies like Up, Avatar, The Lovely Bones, Inglourious Basterds, and Star Trek could could get nominations. When you have a list this dense, it really seems like the Academy is trying to be more open-minded. How about keeping it at five, and nominating Up in the Air, Up, Inglourious Basterds, The Hurt Locker, and Nine? I'd say that's a pretty varied category (also surprisingly drama-lite), but the Academy would much prefer the dark dramas...all of the them.
And at this early stage, who do I think could claim the top prize? Well, anyone who has been paying attention to Up in the Air knows that that has been garnering considerable claim, and I bet it could garner Jason Reitman his second nomination. Hell, if the movie wins, it gets his father, Ivan Reitman, an Oscar (Ivan acted as a producer), and it very well could: it's a funny, yet poignant look at a loner, and a snapshot of our current times. Is it the best of the year? I don't think so, but I've only agreed with the Academy maybe thrice this decade on what the Best Pic of the year was. I wouldn't be mad if it won, though.
As for director, probably the corresponding names to the movies mentioned above: Jason Reitman, Clint Eastwood, Lee Daniels, Kathryn Bigelow, and Rob Marshall. This could also be a year of split director/picture wins, with Eastwood winning another directing Oscar and Reitman taking Picture.
The Best Actor category at this point is pretty boring, actually. We don't have Jamie Foxx, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Daniel Day Lewis, or a Sean Penn - Mickey Rourke-level of dynamic and exciting performances. We've got Clooney for Up in the Air, Morgan Freeman for Invcitus, Matt Damon for The Informant!, Jeremy Renner for the Hurt Locker (though I am half-anticipating a snub), Daniel Day Lewis for Nine, Colin Firth for A Single Man, and maybe this Jeff Bridges movie Crazy Heart will do some business. Out of those seven potentials, though, I'd be hard pressed to pick a frontrunner at this point.
Best Actress will be the more interesting category. It will be an obvious battle between two stellar performances, Gabourey Sidibe for Precious and Carey Mulligan for her dynamic performance in An Education. Yes Meryl Streep will be nominated (when isn't she these days?), and possibly Abbie Cornish for Bright Star, Marion Cotillard for Nine, or a very dark horse would be Saoirse Ronan for The Lovely Bones. Regardless, it will be Sidibe and Mulligan battling to the end.
Supporting Actor seems to have become the new category for crazy, deranged villains. We had Javier Bardem's compressed air-tank-touting Anton Chigurh and Heath Ledger's deranged Joker. This year, two of the nominees will most likely be Christoph Waltz for his terrifying, yet exquisitely evil Nazi villain, and Stanley Tucci, as the rapist and murderer in Lovely Bones. Matt Damon for Invictus could creep in here, Woody Harrelson (for The Messenger) is starting to get the buzz, the Academy could even favor Christian McKay's turn as Orson Welles in Me and Orson Welles. This category is always the most interesting, because it is where the most diverse character actors show up.
Supporting Actress has eluded me the past couple years, so I won't say much more then guessing one or two of the six women in Nine (Nicole Kidman, Penelope Cruz, Fergie, Judi Dench, Kate Hudson, or Sophia Loren) could show up here, Mo'Nique an an obvious frontrunner for Precious, Anna Kendrick possible for Up in the Air (I was not as enamored with her performance), and a maybe Melanie Laurent for Inglourious Basterds (she was Shoshana, and was awesome). So for who will win...Mo'Nique? Honestly, I suck at this category, so I'll stay away until I am FORCED to make a decision.
There are still a dozen or so movies left for me to see before Oscar time. December is when the most exciting, though not necessarily best, movies come out. With The Lovely Bones, Nine, Avatar, Invictus, and A Single Man, among many others, to see I am ready for the mass amount of dinero I must spend at my local cineplex.