The 84th Annual Academy Awards

Well, that was one hell of a streamlined show. The Oscars receive a lot of criticism for being too bloated, running too long, and just overall being too much. Not last night. Last night, Billy Crystal started out with a segment I've long missed, a trip between all of last year's big movies, interacting with some stars, and adding a nice comedy to the mix. Then he moved into a song about the nine nominees, which I honestly couldn't hear because the music drowned him out. I did catch all he had to say about Extremely Loud, though: "Hanks has gone away." All that movie got. Good.

This is the first year since 2003 I have not seen all of the nominees for Best Picture. The only one I never made it to was Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. I almost did a time or two, then decided I didn't like The Reader, so why should I like this one. Why should I even acknowledge its existence in the Oscar race? So I didn't. I'll just pretend Max von Sydow was up because, well, he's Max von Sydow.

One thing that seems to have become more common for Oscar is to spread the wealth a bit. Hugo and The Artist were both the top nominated films, and I didn't expect Hugo to win as much as it did (I predicted it would win two awards, and it ended up winning 5). On any conventional year, one would expect Hugo, after nearly sweeping the technical categories, to go along to start taking Screenplay, Director, and Picture. But the gears shifted back into the Artists favor, much as last year when The Social Network cleaned house early, before The King's Speech took over for the rest of the evening.

I'm all for acknowledging several movies, but shouldn't the best edited film be the best film? I attended a panel Saturday morning featuring five of the seven nominated editors (two for both the Artist and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), and while I would agree that GWTDT is certainly well edited, it runs on way too long. There is at least another ten to fifteen minutes after the central mysteries are solved that drag on and on, and I feel that the best edited film should not be the won you were hoping the next scene would be the last. I like Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, but even they seemed surprised by their win.

Editing was the biggest upset, though Meryl Streep winning over Viola Davis was also fairly surprising. She's now been nominated 17 times and won 3 times, making her the best actor of all time according to the Academy. A lesson I've learned: don't vote for poor Viola Davis. I put a vote for her back in 2008 for Doubt, and that didn't work out, and when she was the sure thing, it makes me doubt (haha, get it) that she will ever win. Which is a shame, because she is a fine actress.

Billy Crystal should just host the show until he gets really old. He is very comfortable up on that stage, and though his song and dance routine is hackneyed, his self-deprecating winks were commendable (before the song, he said, "C'mon, you didn't think I wasn't going to do this?") The best line of the night came from him, when he said, "Nothing helps the economic crisis more then watching a bunch of millionaires give each other gold statues."

Overall, I liked this year's Oscars. Straight to the point. No bullshit. There was one fantastic number by Cirque de Soleil, but otherwise it was concise and to the point, and came in under three hours. Not bad. The only thing I would vote? Delete the Best Original Song category. With only two nominations this year, it was as irrelevant as ever.

Here is the rundown of what I guessed right, and what I didn't. My score is one worse this year, 16/24. Oh well.

Original Screenplay

Prediction/Winner: Midnight in Paris

Adapted Screenplay

Prediction/Winner: The Descendants

Visual Effects

Prediction/Winner: Hugo

Sound Mixing & Editing

Predictions: War Horse

Winner: Hugo

Live Action Short Film

Prediction: Tuba Atlantic

Winner: The Shore

Animated Short Film

Prediction/Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Original Song

Prediction/Winner: "Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets"

Original Score

Prediction/Winner: The Artist

Makeup

Prediction/Winner: The Iron Lady

Foreign Language Film

Prediction/Winner: A Separation

Film Editing

Prediction: The Artist

Winner: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Documentary Short

Prediction: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Winner: Saving Face

Documentary Feature

Prediction/Winner: Undefeated

Directing

Prediction/Winner: The Artist

Costume Design

Prediction: Anonymous

Winner: The Artist

Cinematography

Prediction: The Artist

Winner: Hugo

Art Direction

Prediction/Winner: Hugo

Animated Feature

Prediction/Winner: Rango

Supporting Actress

Prediction/Winner: Octavia Spencer in "The Help"

Leading Actress

Prediction: Viola Davis in "The Help"

Winner: Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady"

Supporting Actor

Prediction/Winner: Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"

Leading Actor

Prediction/Winner: Jean Dujardin in "The Artist"

Best Picture

Prediction/Winner: The Artist

That's all!

The 84th Annual Academy Awards: My Predictions

This year, I didn't post a ten best list. Partly because I didn't see enough films, but also because I didn't feel like there was any one film I could truly name my favorite for the year. I would have gladly released a top 5, if there was something that I thought deserved to be on top. As it is now, my five favorite films would be The Descendants, Drive, Hugo, Moneyball, and 13 Assassins. And maybe Moneyball is my favorite?

So as it goes with this year's Oscars, there seems to be a unanimous opinion on what will clean house this year. The Artist is a behemoth, cleaning up most of the guild awards in its path. Some will argue it has not been seen, but The Hurt Locker had only grossed $17 million when it won, beating out the $7 billion grossed by Avatar. The Artist has grossed $31 million so far, though that is far less then the $100 million that The King's Speech and Slumdog Millionaire had garnered by Oscar time. Of course this is because it is Black and white and Silent; most people hear that descriptor and immediately go, "No thank you!" Maybe The Artist should win, so that people will go see it and discover hey, silent films aren't so bad!

We are of course operating under the presumption that people go see movies because they win Oscars, and I believe they do. A film wins Best Picture, which has to make you curious as to why, if nothing else so you can join in the sudden uprise of haters who wonder how this film, though decent, became best.

Me, I liked the Artist well enough. I saw it back in early December, before it had garnered hype. It's a cute film, though I feel it wears out its welcome about midway through. Think of Singin' in the Rain, if Singin' in the Rain was actually silent and had a darker climax. It's a delightful film, but nothing I'd consider the best. But then again, I don't know what I would consider the best.

Alright, enough rambling. Here are, plain and simple, my predictions. I've gone with the general consensus as far as the major categories are concerned (though I know there's an upset in there somewhere, and I fear it may be Max von Sydow, who though I adore, is in that Stephen Daldry-trite Extremely Loud). The tech categories, though, have led me to take greater risks in a few categories, mainly costumes. I've learned that the most extravagant costumes, and a quick google image search led me to my conclusion.

Best Original Screenplay:

Midnight in Paris

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Descendants

Visual Effects

Hugo

Sound Mixing

War Horse

Sound Editing

War Horse

Live Action Short Film

Tuba Atlantic

Animated Short Film

The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Original Song

"Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets"

Original Score

The Artist

Makeup

The Iron Lady

Foreign Language Film

A Separation

Film Editing

The Artist

Documentary Short

The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Documentary Feature

Undefeated

Directing

The Artist

Costume Design

Anonymous

Cinematography

The Artist

Art Direction

Hugo

Animated Feature

Rango

Supporting Actress

Octavia Spencer in "The Help"

Leading Actress

Viola Davis in "The Help"

Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"

Leading Actor

Jean Dujardin in "The Artist"

Best Picture

"The Artist

82nd Annual Academy Awards: Morning After Thoughts

Man, that ceremony seems like one bad dream.

Part of the reason is that I got drunk last night watching the show, but it also has to do with just how bad the show was put on. Opening with a strange parade of the 10 lead actors up for an award and displaying them for all the world to see was one of the most miscalculated decisions I've seen in awhile. This was followed by a totally misfired musical number starring Neil Patrick Harris, who is a funny guy. Go to YouTube and find some of his Tony Awards antics, they are hysterical. But here, his number introducing Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin, as well as making fun of some of the nominees, was unmemorable and just plain awful.

Then down came our hosts, lowered from the rafters of the stage, and as they came out and began their rapport, I realized what a miscalculated decision this co-hosting job was. Martin lead most of the jokes, with Baldwin following suit. Baldwin looked uncomfortable up there, and it was more obvious then ever that the lines were scripted. The problem with two co-hosts is it makes improvisation harder, especially when they don't have a good chemistry. That is what the two lacked as well; a Colbert/Stewart pairing would fire up some great chemistry, or any number of, but these two are obviously funnier when there's an editor in the chair choosing their best lines.

Christoph Waltz's win was expected, as was Pete Doctor's for Up and T-Bone Burnett for Crazy Heart. Screenplay went with the WGA, so I guess Tarantino isn't as liked by his peers as we thought he was. Mark Boal still gave a rousing speech.

Then there was an unexpected but very sweet tribute to John Hughes, who died this past year. Matthew Broderick, Molly Ringwald, Macauly Culkin, and many others came out onstage and a very touching montage was shown of all his films. I've never been the biggest Hughes fan myself (Planes, Trains, and Automobiles is my favorite of his), but I recognize what makes him so loved, and he deserved these minutes. It came in place of the usual Honorary Award, which they didn't hand out this year, so I'm guessing this is who they meant it for.

In the short films I keep learning different lessons; Logorama won, which I thought was the best, and I guess I should have gone with my favorite from the Live-Action, The New Tenants. I thought for sure the Academy would take the bait Chernobyl, but I guess like Six Shooter, you should always go for the film that ends in bloodshed. And fuck Documentary Short; if there's anything I learned this year, it is to not even listen to what other people are picking and select a random title. I did it two years ago and got it right, and it is what I will continue doing.

Ben Stiller in Na'Vi makeup was a highlight of the night. Much better then his miscalculated Joaquin Phoenix impersonation, he fully embodied the character of the Na'Vi. Ironically, he pointed out, Avatar was not up for Makeup, and maybe he should have worn Spock ears. And the makeup was so good that I kind of wish Avatar had combined more of that. Stiller proved that actors have the most intense eyes, and are more alive then any computer will be able to imitate. Then Star Trek won, which is no surprise.

Then the biggest upset of the night, won that I don't think any official prognosticator saw coming: Precious upset Up in the Air for Best Adapted Screenplay, and a very emotionally overwhelmed Geoffrey Fletcher and gave probably the most passionate speech of the night. His upset was very unexpected, and I'm still trying to figure out how it happened. Up in the Air was so certain! But hey, that's why we watch, because there is always one big upset.

Avatar and The Young Victoria won Art Direction and Costume Design, respectively, and then Zac Efron and Anna Kendrick came out to distribute the Sound awards. We got a very funny clip narrated by Morgan Freeman about the Sound work in The Dark Knight, and clarifying for us what exactly the difference is. I've done Sound work and I even have a had time telling. The Hurt Locker surprisingly won both awards (I was sure Avatar was going to win one of them, so I put it down for both). That guy was strange.

Martin and Baldwin showed an amusing Paranormal Activity spoof of them to introduce the Horror montage. Kristen Stewart and Taylor Lautner came and made the introduction proper, though I noticed Stewart seemed either really nervous, or strung out on drugs. Or both, she is Joan Jett in the new movie The Runaways. The Horror montage was great, though one of them said Horror has been little recognized since The Exorcist more then 30 years ago. Excuse me, but what about The Silence of the Lambs winning Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, and Screenplay a mere 19 years ago? Horror isn't under-recognized, it's just done bad most of the time.

Mauro Fiore became another famous alum of my college Columbia College Chicago to win an Academy Award for Cinematography (for Avatar) though I still feel you shouldn't win for a movie that was created mostly in a computer. Following this was as a very odd interpretive dance to all the Original Score nominees, followed by Michael Giacchino winning for Up. Well deserved, well deserved.

Avatar wins visual effects, easily the most locked category of the night. The Cove wins best Documentary, and Ric O'Berra comes onstage and holds up a sign that says "Text Dolphin to 41....something something". I couldn't tell because the cameras quickly cut away to a shot of the audience, which made me mad. Let Mr. O'Berra, who is fighting for something he believes in, to have his moment in the spotlight.

Tyler Perry handed out Film Editing, and made fun of himself for probably never being able to hear his name again at the Oscars (I guess I can appreciate someone who knows their work isn't great). The Hurt Locker won, of course. Pedro Almodovar and Quentin Tarantino handed out the Best Foreign Language Oscar to El Secreto de Sus Ojos, which I haven't seen and merely predicted on the hunch that you can't go with anything that's already out. Finally, the final four, and the Oscars hit the 210 minute mark, already over-running their length.

They continued having people talk about the Actors, which I liked, and this time they made it old friends of the Nominees, rather then famous movie stars who might have nothing to do with the person they are taking about. Michelle Pfeiffer introduced Jeff Bridges, Vera Farmiga talked about George Clooney, Julianne Moore about Colin Firth, Tim Robbins about Morgan Freeman, and Colin Farrell about Jeremy Renner. Jeff Bridges won.

For Actress, Forest Whitaker introduces Sandra Bullock, Michael Sheen about Helen Mirren, Peter Skarsgaard about Carey Mulligan, Stanley Tucci about Meryl Streep, and Oprah about Gabourey Sidibe. Sandra Bullock, as expected, won. She said she wasn't going to cry (they all do), but she broke down a bit at the end. I've grown to like her as this Awards Season pressed on, but I still don't think she deserved it.

Then Oscar officially made history with Barbra Streisand walking to welcome the first female director ever into the white boys club. I think it would have been hilarious if Lee Daniels or Jim Cameron had won instead. Barbra makes the moment fairly epic; as she opened the card she paused and then said, "Well, the time has come, Kathryn Bigelow." She was great, and I was very happy she won.

Now the Oscars were 30 minutes into overtime, so Tom Hanks simply came out and opened the envelope. No recap of the ten nominees at all, he just came out, ripped open that envelope, and announced The Hurt Locker for Best Picture. Kathryn Bigelow was too stunned to give a speech, so Mark Boal spoke for her. It was proud moment that exemplifies the Academy honors what really is a great movie, not merely a great spectacle.

But overall this show as a step-back from last year. My advice: bring back Stewart, cut out all musical numbers. That would help. These shows can seem long and it doesn't help that the co-stars weren't funny.

UNTIL NEXT YEAR!

82nd Annual Academy Awards

Thoughts on the Red Carpet:

- Kathy Ireland is really annoying

- So is Miley Cyrus

- Taylor Lautner DOES NOT play the most famous werewolf. That was Lon Chaney, Jr.

And here we go...

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Winner: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Animated Feature

Prediction: Up

Winner: Up

Original Song

Prediction: "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" from Crazy Heart

Winner: "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)" from Crazy Heart

Screenplay, Original

Prediction: Inglourious Basterds

Winner: The Hurt Locker

Short Film, Animated

Prediction: Logorama

Winner: Logorama

Documentary Short

Prediction: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant

Winner: Music by Prudence

Short Film, Live Action

Prediction: The Door

Winner: The New Tenants

Makeup

Prediction: Star Trek

Winner: Star Trek

Screenplay, Adapted

Prediction: Up in the Air

Winner: Precious

Supporting Actress

Prediction: Mo'Nique in Precious

Winner: Mo'Nique in Precious

Art Direction

Prediction: Avatar

Winner: Avatar

Costume Design

Prediction: The Young Victoria

Winner: The Young Victoria

Sound Editing

Prediction: Avatar

Winner: The Hurt Locker

Sound Mixing

Prediction: Avatar

Winner: The Hurt Locker

Cinematography

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Winner: Avatar

Original Score

Prediction: Up

Winner: Up

Visual Effects

Prediction: Avatar

Winner: Avatar

Documentary Feature

Prediction: The Cove

Winner: The Cove

Film Editing

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Winner: The Hurt Locker

Foreign Language Film

Prediction: El Secreto de Sus Ojos

Winner: El Secreto de Sus Ojos

Leading Actor

Prediction: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart

Winner: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart

Leading Actress

Prediction: Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side

Winner: Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side

Directing

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Winner: The Hurt Locker

Best Picture

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Winner: The Hurt Locker

Overall: 17/24

Boo ya motherfucker!

82nd Annual Academy Awards: My Predictions

And another year comes to an end. This will be the third official post I've made about the Oscars and what film I believe is going to win. This year was a pretty good year, with a lot of great little films peppered in. Will Avatar win tonight? Probably, but I'm staying true to The Hurt Locker, and Basterds could pull through if the Actors theory holds up. Most categories are locked, with the two toss-ups being Original Screenplay an Picture. So, what are my predictions?

Leading Actor

Last year I coin-flipped and guessed Sean Penn would win, and hurrah, I was right! This year, Jeff Bridges is the clear favorite, and there is no reason he is going to lose. He has tons of love from his acting friends, who gave him a standing ovation at the SAG awards, and he's been cleaning house with every other show. Colin Firth is better, in a complex, layered, and emotional turn in A Single Man. Morgan Freeman embodied Nelson Mandela, and it was a fitting role because Mandela himself told Freeman he would like him to play him in a biopic. George Clooney was once the frontrunner, and has now fallen back to least likely with Jeremy Renner, who was the "surprise" nomination (not really, we all knew it was going to happen). Jeff Bridges, this is yours to lose.

Prediction: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart

Supporting Actor

The Academy has a had a fond fascination with serial killers these past couple years, Javier Bardem and Heath Ledger being the last two to win for psychotic characters. This year will be no different, with Christoph Waltz being the clear favorite (and, like Ledger, he has been since the summer), for playing the ruthlessly smart, selfish, and evil Hans Landa. Matt Damon sported a satisfactory South African accent, Woody Harrelson cried, Christopher Plummer was gruff I guess (didn't see this one), and Stanley Tucci was also an evil serial killer. But none of them have had as much heat behind them as Mr. Waltz, who will dance away with this award. If my presumption is correct, this will be the first award presented too, so the lack of suspense will be over with quickly.

Prediction: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Leading Actress

There are a lot of interesting performances in this category, but overall leading roles for men and women were weak this year. Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe should be the two duking it out for Best Actress, but Sandra Bullock somehow blasted in front of the competition and is now the clear frontrunner for this award. Admittedly, she gave a pretty good performance and was the only level-headed character in that entire film, but she certainly does not deserve an Oscar for it, not even a nomination (and how The Blind Side is even nominated is beyond me). Meryl Streep is the only one for a potential upset, but I don't see how Bullock can lose at this rate. The Academy loves a biopic performance, of which there are three in this case, so you gotta go with the most popular one (lesson learned from Marion Cotillard two years ago).

Prediction: Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side

Supporting Actress

The last two years this category has alluded me, but this year it is not doing it. Penelope Cruz is up again for Nine, but she is NOT winning this time; Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick are both nominated for their roles in Up in the Air, and they were both very good and should be happy to be there; and Maggie Gyllenhaal was the surprise nomination for Crazy Heart, but that film won't sweep. So, it's down to Mo'Nique, who has had buzz surround her since this film was mentioned way back when last year. Her performance was powerful and one of the best things about that movie, and it'll be a pleasure to see her win. Any other winner would be a huge upset.

Prediction: Mo'Nique in Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

Animated Feature

Pixar is in it again, and is going to win for sure, but it should be noted that this is the first year there are five nominees. Coraline is overrated if you ask me, but still decent; Fantastic Mr. Fox is a delightful film and a possible upset; The Princess and the Frog is only here because it brings back traditional animation; and The Secret of Kells is the little-wtf film that nobody has heard of, but I hear is quite good. If voters were required to see all the films I would put money on Kells, but since it is one of the popularity contest categories, the clear winner will be the best of the lot, Up, though I feel the Academy is tiring of handing this one to Pixar all the time. Missing from this category: Ponyo.

Prediction: Up

Art Direction

I've only seen one of the nominees in this category, and it is also the one that will likely win. Avatar's design is massive and impressive, realizing lush forests and a futuristic space world. Sherlock Holmes could be upset, but I think this is a locked category.

Prediction: Avatar

Cinematography

This category is a toss-up: Avatar, Hurt Locker, and The White Ribbon all could win this award. Avatar I disqualify because 60% of the movie is created by the computer, so a lot of that wasn't lighting by the DP anyways. White Ribbon has sumptuous black and white photography that is visually arresting and could very well pull in a sneak attack win. But, I think this is Hurt Locker's category, with it's beautiful imagery of slo-mo bomb explosions. Harry Potter stands no chance.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Costume Design

The hard lesson I have learned over the past two years is never defy the Costume Drama (Elizabeth and The Duchess won the prior two years), so I will go with The Young Victoria as my pick for the Costume award. Though watch, now Nine or Doctor Parnassus will win this award and throw off my lesson to myself. Bright Star, the other costume movie, could very will win as well, but it's not about royalty, so its costumes are more plain and less extravagant.

Prediction: The Young Victoria

Directing

This one should be a shoe-in lock for Bigelow. If Cameron wins, fuck the Academy. Bigelow made a better, more courageous film anyways. And it's time to end the 81-year history of white men winning this award. It's an historical moment for the Academy, and I don't see them voting the other way. Bigelow.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Documentary Feature

I don't pretend to know anything about this category since voters have to view all five films to cast a choice. I have seen two of them, and of the two the better made film is The Cove: it is exciting, dangerous, and conveys an important message. I don't see any other film in that category beating it; it's simply too damn entertaining. But, again, I haven't seen three of the nominees, so what do I know?

Prediction: The Cove

Documentary Short

I actually have seen one of the films nominated in this category, China's Unnatural Disaster, and that was a powerfully made film about a terrible disaster and the government's unwillingness to flinch on the matter. But another film, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (unseen by me) is the clear frontrunner because it deals with an issue that directly effects us as Americans. I can't judge the quality of the film, but it probably connected the most with Academy voters and will most likely win. But again, I haven't seen four of these films.

Prediction: The Last Truck: Closing of GM Plant

Film Editing

I feel this category is locked. What District 9 is doing here I'm not certain, but if The Hurt Locker wins, it should indicate a Best Pic victory (though who knows). If Avatar wins, then it will take Best Picture. Or not. Editing doesn't necessarily correlate, but one assumes it should. Still, Hurt Locker relies a lot on precise editing to build tension and heighten those explosion scenes, and it worked very well, so there's no reason it shouldn't win.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Foreign Language Film

Another category I'm not going to pretend to know anything about, since I have only seen The White Ribbon. A Prophet is supposed to be excellent, but I'm going to pick El Secreto De Sus Ojos to win. Why? No reason, but I'm not confident in any of the films so it seems like a good option. Remember The Lives of Others and Departures upsetting? Well, Kris Tapley predicted those upsets and is predicting Ojos, so I'm just going with him.

Prediction: El Secreto de Sus Ojos

Makeup

With only three nominees, the winner should be clear. Il Divo and The Young Victoria are nothing fantastic, but Star Trek had that all green lady. So it wins.

Prediction: Star Trek

Original Score

Michael Giacchino will finally get his due with his beautiful score for Up, though Fantastic Mr. Fox deserves recognition for its fun score as well. The Hurt Locker and Avatar were unmemorable, and Sherlock Holmes...I don't know it. But Up deserves it, and will get it.

Prediction: Up

Original Song

No strong showings this year, unlike the past two years when we got Jai Ho and Falling Slowly. The Wear Kind from Crazy Heart will undoubtedly win, since the others are all unmemorable (especially Princess and the Frog). Go T Bone!

Prediction: "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart) from Crazy Heart"

Short Film, Animated

I saw all the films this year, and wrote a review of all them already. I'm going with Logorama, although you should know that A Matter of Loaf and Death, the new Wallace & Gromit short, is the favorite and probably will win. But Logorama was something unique and very, very different. And I lot of people liked it, so I'm predicting an upset on Nick Park this year. Logorama all the way!

Prediction: Logorama

Short Film, Live Action

Again, I've seen all the films and already written a review on them. None of them were particularly strong, but you can probably go with The Door, since it is about Chernobyl and tugs at the heart strings. The others ranged from OK to good, but none stand out as Oscar bait more then The Door.

Prediction: The Door

Sound Editing & Mixing

They are different categories, but I'm lumping them together because my prediction for them both stands the same. Yes, they are very different arts, but I think Avatar is the clear winner for both. Of course, Hurt Locker could upset in the Mixing section, but otherwise this is Avatar's to lose.

Prediction for both: Avatar

Visual Effects

Locked. Avatar. Go home.

Prediction: Avatar

Screenplay, Adapted

This one is a lock for Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner. Up in the Air perfectly balances a multitude of themes and plots, and it wouldn't have been possible without a great script. I would love an In the Loop upset, but Up in the Air deserves it.

Prediction: Up in the Air

Screenplay, Original

This category is one of the biggest toss-ups, between the Guild-favorite Hurt Locker and Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds. Basterds didn't make a show at the WGA because Tarantino himself is not a member, which is fair. It just makes it harder for us prognosticators to decide who will win since we don't know which way the writers themselves lean. But the actors really like Basterds, and Tarantino has a gift for building long dialogue scenes, so I don't see this one losing. Hurt Locker works more on a visual level then a script level, and I'm sure Basterds is a more entertaining read.

Prediction: Inglourious Basterds

Best Picture

This year, we have ten films nominated for Best Picture, and a new preferential system that could really fuck with the results. Three movies stand-out as the possible winners. First, Avatar, which has made more then $2.6 billion worldwide, which makes it obviously a favorite with the public, but it lacks support from both the Writers and the Actors (it has no nominations in either of those categories). Cameron himself has said give Bigelow director, but give us Picture. However, I feel Picture should mean that best overall elements, and Avatar is purely a technical achievement. Now, Hurt Locker, which has been cleaning house at the major guild awards; the only thing it has going against it is that it only made $13 million domestic during its run in theaters. However, it is a very popular rental item, and has been listed for the last month on Netflix as "Long wait" for availability. People are watching it. Finally, Inglourious Basterds, the dark horse that took the SAG ensemble award. It definitely has strong acting, strong writing, and strong directing. It's a terrific film, and one that I bet could upset and actually take the award. However, it is also a fanboy film, and most of the members probably vote by what is most popular. However, if people try and fuck Avatar and Hurt Locker over by putting them at 10, then Basterds could win. At the end of the day, though, I'm going with Hurt Locker; it will probably lose, but it is the best film of all the nominees and one of the best of the decade.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

And there you have it. I believe the show starts at 8:30/5:30 ET/PT, live all across the nation (and I guess in Australia). I'll come back after the show and tell how well I did. The worse I do, the drunker I'll be though.

LET'S DO THIS!

The 2009 Oscar-Nominated Short Films: Live-Action

It's that time of year again! It's OSCAR SUNDAY! The most religious for me and people who are like-minded, I guess. Anyways, part of my tradition is to seek out the short films, and today I have ventured out to view the Live-Action short films nominated this year.

Overall I'd say the quality of the films was lower then last year, but like the Animated category there is one clear audience favorite that should win, and one that will win, as it always goes with the Academy. However, I can respect them in these categories because, well, they actually have to see the movies. Alright, on to the films.

First up, Kavi (India, 19 min), a story of modern-day slavery and a little boy who undergoes considerable abuse at the hands of a slave-master that the boy's (Kavi is his name) father owes a debt to. It looks like a really pretty student film, and indeed at the end we are told that the film was made in part for a master thesis film at USC (or one of those California schools). Overall, the technical aspects are amazing, and the kid is really good to, and it has a hopeful open-ended ending. Still, it is the weakest of the bunch because the story is kind of hokey and you can tell its a student film.

Second, The New Tenants (Denmark, 20 min), a hilarious story that recalls Six Shooter, the Martin McDonaugh short that won the Award five or so years ago. The premise involves two friends who have just moved into a new apartment, and are greeted by a landlady, a drug dealer, and a grieving husband with a vendetta. The movie goes into wacky comedic directions and is probably my favorite of the bunch, but it has a really stupid ending. It has a great script, and a great cast (including Gomer Pyle) but overall it kind of trails off at the end. This was the only film that got applause, I might add, so it was an audience favorite.

Third, Miracle Fish (Australia, 17 min), a film that is the prime example of why a director should never be their own editor (though the Coens are the standing exception), as it drags its feet in the beginning and doesn't really pick up the pace or get interesting until the last five minutes. It is Joe's 8th birthday, and he is the outcast at school, poor, and socially unliked. He hides in the sick bay and takes a nap, and when he awakes, the school is completely deserted. At first, I assumed this was just his imagination and it would all be a happy dream land (he finds solace in the solitude), but after a good eight minutes of Joe wandering aimlessly you begin to realize that its real, and something fucked up is going to happen. The movie's ending is really good, but the pacing sucks, and the kid actor is only ok (you are always asking for trouble when your cast is primarily kids).

Fourth, The Door (Ireland, 17 min), is the most likely to win because it deals with the radiation leak at Chernobyl in the 80s, a truly horrible event. It concerns a family whose daughter falls victim to the radiation, and the sadness and anger that comes with it. It sets the mood well, and is deliberately paced and executed, but it feels like nothing more then Oscar-bait (like last year's winner, Toyland). Overall well made, but nothing special.

And finally, Istället för abrakadabra (Instead of Abracadabra, Sweden, 22 min), a dark comedy about a 25-year-old loser who wishes to be a magician and lives at home with his parents. He performs a magic show and ends up impaling his own mother with a sword. At the hospital he meets a cute nurse, who happens to be his neighbor, and becomes determined to be a better magician to impress her. The movie is sweet and funny, but again it is nothing special and really doesn't stand heads above the others.

So my final prediction is The Door, simply for its message and somber tone. The Academy loves that stuff, although they do like the black humor too, as evidenced by Six Shooter's win. However, The Door is the one to beat, even if it ain't the best.

The 2009 Oscar-Nominated Short Films: Animated

It's that time again! Oscar weekend! And with Oscar weekend comes my viewing of all the short films. I saw the animated category this past Wednesday, and tomorrow morning I plan to venture out and see the Live Action shorts. So, what did this year hold?

The presentation was fixed this time, no stupid quotes from people about short films. Instead, a title card indicated whether the film was nominated or "Highly Acclaimed" (the running time was just over 60 minutes for all the films, so three were added to bring it to 90). How did this batch hold up?

Overall I'd say the quality overall was higher, though there were none that are as good as Le Maison en Petits Cubes, which to my delight won last year. Still, with a new Wallace & Gromit and a bitingly hilarious satire of our culture, there were a few stand-outs.

First up, French Roast (France, 8 minutes), a clever little film that is essentially one shot spanning an entire day at a café where a gentlemen has forgotten his money and tries different methods to get out of the situation. Recurring characters include a bum, a waiter, and a little old nun who I guess is masquerading as a serial killer. It's funny, but it ain't much of a film otherwise.

Second, La dama y la muerte (The Lady and Death, Spain, 8 min.), a zany movie about a widow who longs to join her deceased husband. Death comes to collect her, but is defied by a hunky doctor with several nurses on his bulging arms, and a battle between death and life ensues that goes way over the top. It's funny, and conveys an interesting message about when its time to die, but that also gets lost in the over-the-top humor that permeates the film. Antonio Banderas was a producer, as a side note.

Third, the new Wallace & Gromit movie "A Matter of Loaf and Death" (U.K., 30 min). The longest of the bunch, this is another classic Wallace & Gromit tale that puts the two as bakers, with a baker serial killer on the loose. It's kind of obvious right away that the woman Wallace falls for is the serial killer in question, but that doesn't stop the film from being zany fun with plenty of cheeky humor. However, it also doesn't live up to the standards of the original Wallace & Gromit shorts, A Grand Day Out, Close Shave, and The Wrong Trousers. You kind of know what to expect at this point, and while its always enjoyable to see the duo at it again, the film's climax goes way over the top and I kind of wished for something a little more original with the two. Still, funny as hell, and the likely winner since Wallace & Gromit is an Academy favorite.

Fourth, Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty (Ireland, 6 min), a very funny story of a Granny who tells her grandchild the story of Sleeping Beauty...with a few twists of her own. The movie is really funny and has a lot of laughs, but two major technical issues bothered me. First, the sound wasn't mixed properly so the old lady shrieked to high heaven and nearly made me deaf. But even more bothersome was the animation itself, which looked cheap, and out of sync with the audio. I love a good story, but if there is no polish or glaring errors, I get pulled out, which makes Granny O'Grimm my least favorite of the lot.

Then the program went to Highly Acclaimed films, which confused me because I had only counted four so far and wondered where the fifth one was (maybe they didn't get rights?). Of the Highly Acclaimed section, we got Partly Cloudy (U.S., 6 min), the cloud movie that showed up before Up; Runaway (Canada, 12 min), a very strange, yet strikingly funny tale of train ride that goes horribly, horribly wrong when the conductor goes to sleep with one of the passengers; and The Kinematograph (Poland, 10 - 12 ish min), a tale of a fictional inventor in the 19th century perfecting motion pictures. This one should have been spectacular, but it has an annoying subplot where is wife or daughter or whoever has consumption and dies. A film like this could have been much better, but is drawn down by hokey dialogue and a hokey message.

A message then appeared on the screen, saying that the final film contained violence and strong language, warning obviously the stupid parents in the theater who brought their kids thinking all animation was for children (which there were none of on a Wednesday afternoon) would leave.

Finally, we got the final nomination, Logorama (France, 16 min), by far the best film of the bunch, and one that you need to see to really understand. It takes place in an alternate Los Angeles where literally everything is some sort of corporate logo. MSN butterflies fly around, the Michelin men are the cops, Big Boy picks his nose, Pringles wolf-whistles at Esso girl, and the Pilsbury doughboy works in a diner. Literally it goes on from there, endlessly continuing on and featuring around 2,500 corporations (or so I read somewhere). Basically, you could say this is how the world sees us, and they wouldn't be far off. Ronald McDonald himself is a the villain of the piece, taking hostages and transporting arms and nuclear materials. Will this win? Probably not, I think it is too polarizing for the Academy voters, but hey, they gave it to Le Maison last year so I could be (rightfully) wrong.

Tomorrow, the Live Action films, then my predictions. Only 30 hours left until the show!

An Early Look at the Oscars

I usually wait to dabble in Awards hyper-mania until later, on the eve of the Oscar nominations. But, in light of recent changes to the Academy's awards set-up, the surge of top 10 lists beginning to be released, and the announcement of the Golden Globe nominees (which is more or less the official kick-off of Awards Season) next Tuesday, I thought I would share my thoughts on what I think of the current state of the Academy Awards, and who I suspect (with help from the Awards Daily people, a great site I highly recommend) could be nominated/win.

Let's start things off with the most obvious topic: Best Picture. Because the Academy has been criticized for being too "narrow," especially with their exclusion of the the second biggest movie of all time from the top prize short list (though The Dark Knight still managed to scrape in 8 nominations, more then The Reader), those snobbish, elite status members have decided to change the rules, instead allowing 10 movies to be nominated for Best Picture.

Back in the days of yore, there used to be up to 10 nominations for Best Picture, until 1944, when the rules changed and the list was shortened to five films. Now, its back to 10, and I have had reservations about this decision from the moment I heard it. While, yes, it means more movies will be nominated, it still doesn't matter because the five movies that don't have corresponding directors nominated in the Best Director category will immediately be eliminated by prognosticators, leaving the obvious short list of 5 still valid. They were still nominated, yes, but it seems more like a way for the Academy to squeeze in comedies and big budget Hollywood movies, which typically don't get nominated these days.

Of course the list of 10 opens up the high possibility that, maybe, one of the five films without a correlating director will win, and if that ever happens, then this decision would be a more exciting one. But, let's face it, very few of the 6,000 Academy members see EVERY picture nominated...and there were only five! Ten? Forget it, they are too busy. They have lives, they can't be expected to view EVERY single nominated film, while someone like me who rarely has anything to do with his January will plunder into the immense depth of the nominees. In short, it is always what is most popular, and any films sans directors will be ignored.

The 10 also takes away the enjoyable element (for me, anyways) of guessing which movies would be nominated. If there were 5, I would maybe pick Up in the Air, Precious, The Hurt Locker, Nine, and Invictus, and label An Education as the dark horse. Having only seen three of those five I still feel it is a solid list. But now the list is opened up so movies like Up, Avatar, The Lovely Bones, Inglourious Basterds, and Star Trek could could get nominations. When you have a list this dense, it really seems like the Academy is trying to be more open-minded. How about keeping it at five, and nominating Up in the Air, Up, Inglourious Basterds, The Hurt Locker, and Nine? I'd say that's a pretty varied category (also surprisingly drama-lite), but the Academy would much prefer the dark dramas...all of the them.

And at this early stage, who do I think could claim the top prize? Well, anyone who has been paying attention to Up in the Air knows that that has been garnering considerable claim, and I bet it could garner Jason Reitman his second nomination. Hell, if the movie wins, it gets his father, Ivan Reitman, an Oscar (Ivan acted as a producer), and it very well could: it's a funny, yet poignant look at a loner, and a snapshot of our current times. Is it the best of the year? I don't think so, but I've only agreed with the Academy maybe thrice this decade on what the Best Pic of the year was. I wouldn't be mad if it won, though.

As for director, probably the corresponding names to the movies mentioned above: Jason Reitman, Clint Eastwood, Lee Daniels, Kathryn Bigelow, and Rob Marshall. This could also be a year of split director/picture wins, with Eastwood winning another directing Oscar and Reitman taking Picture.

The Best Actor category at this point is pretty boring, actually. We don't have Jamie Foxx, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Daniel Day Lewis, or a Sean Penn - Mickey Rourke-level of dynamic and exciting performances. We've got Clooney for Up in the Air, Morgan Freeman for Invcitus, Matt Damon for The Informant!, Jeremy Renner for the Hurt Locker (though I am half-anticipating a snub), Daniel Day Lewis for Nine, Colin Firth for A Single Man, and maybe this Jeff Bridges movie Crazy Heart will do some business. Out of those seven potentials, though, I'd be hard pressed to pick a frontrunner at this point.

Best Actress will be the more interesting category. It will be an obvious battle between two stellar performances, Gabourey Sidibe for Precious and Carey Mulligan for her dynamic performance in An Education. Yes Meryl Streep will be nominated (when isn't she these days?), and possibly Abbie Cornish for Bright Star, Marion Cotillard for Nine, or a very dark horse would be Saoirse Ronan for The Lovely Bones. Regardless, it will be Sidibe and Mulligan battling to the end.

Supporting Actor seems to have become the new category for crazy, deranged villains. We had Javier Bardem's compressed air-tank-touting Anton Chigurh and Heath Ledger's deranged Joker. This year, two of the nominees will most likely be Christoph Waltz for his terrifying, yet exquisitely evil Nazi villain, and Stanley Tucci, as the rapist and murderer in Lovely Bones. Matt Damon for Invictus could creep in here, Woody Harrelson (for The Messenger) is starting to get the buzz, the Academy could even favor Christian McKay's turn as Orson Welles in Me and Orson Welles. This category is always the most interesting, because it is where the most diverse character actors show up.

Supporting Actress has eluded me the past couple years, so I won't say much more then guessing one or two of the six women in Nine (Nicole Kidman, Penelope Cruz, Fergie, Judi Dench, Kate Hudson, or Sophia Loren) could show up here, Mo'Nique an an obvious frontrunner for Precious, Anna Kendrick possible for Up in the Air (I was not as enamored with her performance), and a maybe Melanie Laurent for Inglourious Basterds (she was Shoshana, and was awesome). So for who will win...Mo'Nique? Honestly, I suck at this category, so I'll stay away until I am FORCED to make a decision.

There are still a dozen or so movies left for me to see before Oscar time. December is when the most exciting, though not necessarily best, movies come out. With The Lovely Bones, Nine, Avatar, Invictus, and A Single Man, among many others, to see I am ready for the mass amount of dinero I must spend at my local cineplex.