For the first time in 15 years, I will not be able to watch the Oscar telecast on Sunday night. I'll still be paying attention as much as possible, but I am now pursuing a career in the entertainment industry and this particular jobs requires me on Sundays. This won't stop me from making my predictions, but I'm decidedly less invested this year than others, which is a shame because the Best Picture outcome at this point could go to two big films. My predictions are, as follows:
Best Makeup:
Dallas Buyers Club
While I would love to see Jackass win, especially because the makeup on Johnny Knoxville was really, really good. But since I don't see Academy members ticking this one off, and The Lone Ranger is a pretty big flop that's not that impressive, that leaves Dallas as the one to lose it.
Best Song:
Let it Go
How could it not be Let it Go? The album has made tons of money for Disney (not to mention the movie itself), and even though Pharrell's Happy has made it to the top of the charts, I don't see this going any other way. The academy generally favors Disney power ballads.
Best Score
Gravity
My preference would be Her, but Gravity is going to clean house this year, so its a safe bet to pin it for every technical category.
Best Editing
Captain Phillips
Except for editing, which Gravity has very little of in favor of Cuaron's signature tracking shots. Captain Phillips, on the other hand, is the most heavily edited film of the bunch and won the ACE Eddie for Best Editing - Drama, which is usually a good indicator. American Hustle took Best Editing - Comedy, so it's probably the most likely to upset.
Best Visual Effects
Gravity
I mean, what else would it be?
Best Live Action Short
Helium
I didn't see these shorts, so I'm going with the general consensus here.
Best Animated Short
Get a Horse!
I have seen all of these films, and without a doubt Disney's Mickey short Get a Horse! is the strongest of the bunch. Pretty much no contest here.
Best Animated Feature
Frozen
I've seen 4 of the 5, and unless the Academy is feeling super sentimental towards Miyazaki, this is Frozen's to lose. Ernest & Celestine remains unseen by me, but honestly, Frozen is the best of the bunch, though The Croods and Despicable Me 2 aren't exactly stiff competition.
Best Documentary Short
The Lady in Number 6
Didn't see these, so again, general consensus here.
Best Documentary Feature
20 Feet From Stardom
Honestly this one is a toss-up between Stardom and Act of Killing, but somehow I feel the Academy will choose the inspiring, uplifting chronicle of background singers over the tale of genocidal Philippinos re-enacting their war crimes. Act of Killing is amazing one of the best films of the year, but considering how depressing most Oscar winning movies are, there's gotta be one happy movie that wins.
Sound Editing & Mixing
Gravity
All Is Lost could upset in the sound editing category, as that whole film relies on it's sound design. But, unless Academy voters saw that film, they'll go with the heavy favorite Gravity.
Foreign Language Film
The Great Beauty
It's the only one I've seen and is also favorite to win. I don't know enough about the other films to determine if they could upset here, though I wouldn't be very surprised by an upset as The Great Beauty is not the most Academy-friendly film I've seen.
Best Costume Design
The Great Gatsby
Rule of thumb is to always go with the most lavish film. Though American Hustle is the likely upset here.
Best Cinematography
Gravity
Seems to be a lock for Gravity, though I contest whether this movie really qualifies since most of it was created in a computer. Yes, I know the DP probably oversaw every shot to make sure it looked right, but that's not quite the same to me as actually being on location getting gorgeous cinematography. Plus, if CGI cinematography can win (as it has for Avatar and Life of Pi) why can't motion-capture actors win (like Andy Serkis and Zoe Saldana)? Double standard, Academy. Also, poor Roger Deakins will go home empty handed for the 11th time.
Production Design
The Great Gatsby
Again, most lavish film. Some people are picking Gravity, though I can't imagine why. Couple of space stations and interiors. Not like Gatsby's extravagant mansion.
Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
Although I prefer Before Midnight or The Wolf of Wall Street, the language of 12 Years a Slave is very distinguished, and if it's going to win the big prize, it has to collect in a few other places.
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
I really believer Her could upset here, but it's hard to imagine American Hustle having 10 nominations and going home completely empty-handed. But Her is far-and-away one of the best screenplays of the year.
Best Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave
Continuing some awards for 12 Years is the supporting actress, which could go to Jennifer Lawrence though I really don't want it to. She's a great persona and everyone loves her, but she is not the best of this category (I'd take Sally Hawkins or June Squibb over her). Plus, Lupita's Patsey is the most heartbreaking character in the movie.
Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
He's the favorite, and though he did a fine job, I'd love to see Barkhad Abdi's Somalian pirate take home the prize. One of the best characters of the year.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
None of these nominees are really that impressive, and I've heard a list of far better performances that I won't repeat here. But I suppose Cate Blanchett was the most interesting of the group.
Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
McConaughey has undergone a tremendous journey from beach bum to generally respected actor. From Lincoln Lawyer, Bernie, Killer Joe, Magic Mike, and Mud, McConaughey has built a new image for himself that is completed by his performance as the arrogant dealer of FDA un-approved drugs that seemed to help AIDs patients more than AZT did. I'd love to see Leo win, as The Wolf of Wall Street is probably the first film to prove he has range. Chiwetel Ejiofor also gives a solid performance as the humiliated, wrongfully imprisoned Solmon Northup. But McConaughey is the one to beat.
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
Unlike last year, when Ben Affleck won the DGA but was not nominated for Best Director, we have the DGA matching 4 of the 5 Oscar nominees (instead 2 of the 5). And since Cuaron won there, there's no doubt it will win here.
Best Picture
Gravity
No one knows what is going to win. They might pretend like they do, but honestly, they don't. The SAG chose American Hustle for their Best Ensemble Award, DGA went with Gravity, and PGA had a rare tie between 12 Years and Gravity. 12 Years also won the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. So why Gravity? The only reason I can see it not winning is because, like last year's Life of Pi, it is mostly a story about one person stranded, and therefore will not garner the support of the humongous acting branch. It also doesn't have a screenplay nomination, but that didn't stop Titanic from winning, and since Sandra Bullock is nominated I think it stands a pretty good chance. It's also an exciting space adventure that has garnered accolades from many critics and was a huge hit with the audiences, raking in $269 million domestically. It would be more predictable for 12 Years to win, as it is the big, emotional, important historical drama, but unlike last year when Argo was the heavy favorite from almost everywhere, this year I don't think the support is as universally strong for 12 Years. Don't get me wrong, if 12 Years wins I'll be happy, but something is telling me that the sci-fi genre is due its first Oscar.
Monday or Sunday night I'll post how I did. To note, I haven't been wrong about Best Picture since 2006, when The Departed won. I pride myself in this 7-year streak, but maybe it's time for that to end. I won't be watching the ceremony so honestly I won't care, but I think Gravity would be a more interesting choice in the long run.
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