And we roll around to another year of Oscar voting. I can I certainly have no idea what will really happen tomorrow? Revenant love? Mad Max unexpectedly triumphs? We'll know tomorrow, but for now, I'm throwing down my predictions for all the Oscars, and boy am I out on a limb. I'm predicting almost no Revenant love, lots of Mad Max love in the tech, and an unlikely best picture winner.
Best Picture
For the first time in a long time, we have a 3-way split from the guilds, which is absolutely no help when it comes to picking Best Picture. Usually you can rely on the guilds to be consistent, but since the PGA went to Big Short, DGA went to Revenant, and SAG went to Spotlight, this is really anyones game. And I'm going with Spotlight, probably the least likely of the three to win. And here's why: the actors make up the largest body of voters at the Academy, so if they voted for Spotlight at their show, then they will vote for it again. Not only that, but Spotlight is the only film I've heard unanimously from everyone I know that they love it. It's marketing itself as an important film and will probably motivate to vote for it on that alone. Members love an important film. Big Short also has this going for it, as it is about various Wall Streeters predicting the market collapse, and is big exclamation point on not repeating the whole debacle. But it didn't strike a chord with me, and I don't think it carries enough heft. Revenant is obviously the heavy contender frontrunner, but never in the history of the Oscars have two films directed by the same person won back-to-back Best Picture awards (Inarritu directed Birdman last year). And plus, it's a movie that fails to register; I personally didn't care about Leo's struggles. So Spotlight it is. I'm going all in on that.
Prediction: Spotlight
Actor in a Leading Role
It's Leo's year. Everyone knows. He's fine in the movie, he acts his damn heart out. He acts harder than anyone in this category. It's his to lose. And if he does, well, I have no clue who will upset. This one seems obvious.
Prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant
Actress in a Leading Role
This one also seems locked in, although I'm more invested in Brie Larson winning for Room since she did a damn good job and has always been a fantastic actor. I would say Charlotte Rampling perhaps, but she shot herself in the foot with some stupid statement she made about equality. Larson's to lose.
Prediction: Brie Larson in Room
Actor in a Supporting Role
Here is a category where I smell an upset. A lot of people are rooting for Stallone to finally win for his 40-year-long performance as Rocky Balboa, and I'll be reasonably happy if he wins. But Mark Rylance was fantastic in Bridge of Spies, and if the Academy is going to repeat last year where they gave every Best Pic nominee one Oscar, then Rylance is the most likely winner. But I won't vote against everyone's favorite boxer.
Prediction: Sylvester Stallone in Creed
Actress in a Supporting Role
Kate Winslet won the SAG but everyone seems to think Alicia Vikander, who had a great year between Danish Girl and Ex Machina, will take the prize. Who I am to disagree?
Prediction: Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl
Animated Feature Film
This is a weird category this year, where Pixar and Aardman go up against Charlie Kaufmann's existential crisis stop-motion film. But Inside Out will be the winner. More then just proving Pixar can still be great, this film has moved me more than any film in recent memory. A fantastically mature family film.
Prediction: Inside Out
Cinematography
Roger Deakins will lose again. Which is a shame because his work is the best part of the otherwise overrated Sicario. Mad Max would also be a strong contender here, as well as Hateful Eight's much touted Super Panavision 70 mm film. But The Revenant truly is a beautiful film to look at, and will be Emmanuel Lubezki's 3rd year winning. That's the only thing going against him, but I doubt the Oscar voters remember he's won in the past.
Prediction: The Revenant
Costume Design
The rule of thumb here is to pick the costumiest movie in the bunch, that produces the best dresses. So that movie would be Cinderella. A lot of people seem to think Mad Max, but I feel the costumes are showy or glamorous enough. That movie's strength comes in the make-up more.
Prediction: Cinderella
Directing
For this one, I will not defy the guild. DGA says Inarritu, I see no reason to think otherwise. Shooting The Revenant was a hell of an experience, I hear. I would lover George Miller to win this, but sadly that is merely a dream and will not be a reality.
Prediction: The Revenant
Documentary Feature
I've seen 3 of the 5, and Amy is still the best. A fantastic doc about the pop star's tabloid and drug filled life that led to her early death, joining the 27 club. Cartel Land was fascinating but uneven, and if the Academy didn't award Josh Oppenheimer for Act of Killing, they certainly won't for the follow-up, The Look of Silence, as wrenching as it is.
Prediction: Amy
Documentary Short Subject
I have no idea. So I went with the consensus.
Prediction: Body Team 12
Film Editing
This one has to be Mad Max. Action films call the most attention to their editing if they are bad, and you don't notice it if it is great. Mad Max is a film where the editing truly is invisible, propelling along the intense narrative and many amazing car chases. Big Short is the other likely winner.
Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Foreign Language Film
I missed out on these this year. But Son of Saul seems to be the favorite. So it is the one I will choose.
Prediction: Son of Saul
Makeup and Hairstyling
Definitely one of Mad Max's greatest strengths. The look of Immortan Joe, of the warboys, of the various members of the Citadel and Furiosa's grease-stained forehead. Although Tom Hardy's hair in Revenant was pretty convincing too.
Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Music (Original Score)
Ennio Morricone's score is the one to beat here. Of course John Williams may be given one more for Star Wars, but I think they'll go with the master composer here.
Prediction: The Hateful Eight
Music (Original Song)
Despite its overplayed nature, I really liked "Earned It." It's a catchy, mysterious tune. But "Til it Happens to You" comes from the doc The Hunting Ground about rape on college campuses. It's also a sad song, sung by Lady GaGa, who had a strong show at the Oscars last year singing The Sound of Music. I really have no feeling either way (and am especially surprised Sam Smith is here, but Furious 7 song "See You Again" isn't), but I assume Lady GaGa will win. It's a song with a message, and if I'm going with Spotlight in the top spot, than I must go with this too.
Prediction: "Til it Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground
Production Design
Another Mad Max win. That citadel is pretty sweet. And so are those cars.
Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Short Film (Animated)
I only have seen World of Tomorrow because Netflix had it. It isn't the favorite, but I liked it a lot, so why not vote with my heart here.
Prediction: World of Tomorrow
Short Film (Live Action)
Haven't seen any of these. So...
Prediction: Shok
Sound Editing and Mixing
I know they are different, but my prediction is the same for both. Mad Max. Revenant is also likely for either or both. But I suck at predicting which it will be, so why not go all in.
Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Visual Effects
Mad Max, although Star Wars could easily take this. But there are so many visual effects going on and you don't even notice them because they are serving the story, rather than driving it. I was amazed seeing what was fake and what wasn't.
Prediction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
I'm giving this to Big Short, because it won the WGA.
Prediction: The Big Short
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Spotlight! It also won the WGA. Also, I'm saying it will win Best Picture but didn't pick it to win any of the other categories. So its gotta win something else.
Prediction: Spotlight
Check back tomorrow when I post my results!
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