Best Original Screenplay:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
Rationale: I expect to see at least 4 of these movies in the Best Picture seat, and the Original screenplay section is a place where the best screenplays really get to shine. Many will argue that Avatar's screenplay is the weakest element of that movie, and I agree, but I don't see the Academy nominating anything else. A chance for maybe (500) Days of Sumer or, God forbid, The Hangover to snag a nomination. Otherwise, these are most likely your five.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Crazy Heart
District 9
In the Loop
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Up in the Air
Rationale: I'm taking a few outside chances here; Crazy Heart, Precious, and Up in the Air are all locked, but I'm unsure about District 9 or In the Loop. I think In the Loop would be a terrific nomination, and I would hate District 9 to be nominated, but it seems to be so loved by everyone. I don't get it, honestly, but apparently this is the year for sci-fi to shine. Star Trek or Julie & Julia could snag a nom as well.
Best Supporting Actress:
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Rationale: Nine doesn't seem loved by anyone other then the SAG and Globes, so I rule out Penelope Cruz and Marion Cotillard right away. Though they could still be nominated. I haven't seen A Single Man yet, but Julianne Moore is a favorite of the Academy and seems likely to snag the dark horse spot. Otherwise, the other four are pretty much guaranteed.
Best Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Rationale: You can guarantee about 3 of these, with Tucci and Plummer being my unsure picks. I see Tucci missing out because The Lovely Bones is not much liked (unseen by me), and we already have a crazy villain in the category. Christian McKay, as Orson Welles in Me and Orson Welles seems like the only candidate likely to unseat somebody, but the movie isn't well known enough to be a serious threat. These will probably be the nominees.
Best Actress:
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Rationale: In December I predicted this category would be a showdown between Mulligan and Sidibe, but apparently the sands have shifted and it's between Bullock and Streep, with Bullock the favorite. How did this happen? Helen Mirren is the only one who could not be nominated, with Emily Blunt the likely alternative. Otherwise, another easy category.
Best Actor:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Rationale: Again, I am copying the SAG exactly, because it seems the most logical. They are all strong contenders, though Jeremy Renner is the only one I see being unseated, perhaps by Viggo Mortensen for The Road. Otherwise, the rest of the slots are locked up. Unless the Academy loves Daniel Day Lewis enough to nominate him for anything.
Best Director:
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Rationale: These are the five DGA nominees, and I see no reason for none of them to be nominated. Clint Eastwood or the Coens seem like the only likely upsetters, but their movies don't have enough heat behind them for this to be likely. Hopefully Bigelow will win, just like she deserves, and a woman can finally break the barrier as Best Director.
Best Picture
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air
Rationale: The five DGA nominees are locked. As for the other five, just random guesses based on the PGA awards. I really would love to see A Serious Man nominated here. I'm guessing Up, but the animated film may be forever doomed to the Animated Feature category, and so it will be relegated there instead of here. If not Up, then Invictus. I seriously hope The Hangover doesn't get nominated; that would be a sad day for the Oscars (though last year was a sad day for the Oscars). Also, three sci-fi movies? Star Trek could be in or out, but since it has PGA love, I pick it. Same for District 9. This list right here, though, is a prime example for why 10 nominees is a bad idea. Go back to 5.
The nominees will be announced at 5:30 am PST tomorrow! I'll be up to watch them. HOORAY!
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