Saturday, February 20, 2010

The Best Picture Round-Up

We're in the middle of Oscar season, with the awards only two weeks away, so I thought it would be a good time to look back at the ten movies nominated for an Oscar and provide my final thoughts in each individual film, and what I think of its chances of winning.

Avatar
Nominated for: Best Picture, Director, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Art Direction, Visual Effects, Cinematography, and Original Score.

The behemoth that recently beat Titanic's box office record and is looking to rake in $700 million domestic before all is said and done has become one of those films that, as time has gone on, has become increasingly overrated in my mind. Upon my initial viewing I thought it was thrilling and a lot of fun, but I didn't think it could be seriously considered for Best Picture. Well, now it's poised to take the top prize, and while it would shatter the curse of all sci-fi films (not a single one has ever won Best Picture) I feel it is the wrong movie to do so. It doesn't have any acting or screenplay nominations, so how can it be the best of the year when some of the core elements of the film aren't near the best? Let it clean up the technical awards, it deserves those, but nothing more.


The Blind Side
Nominated for: Best Picture, Actress - Leading (Sandra Bullock)

When this film was announced on Oscar morning as a nominee I nearly keeled over in surprise. I hadn't seen it yet, but I couldn't imagine it being that good to even be nominated. I went and saw the film shortly after the nominations, and can say that the film surprised me with its heart, and Sandra Bullock was actually pretty good considering she is Sandra Bullock. But it is beyond me why this movie is nominated, or why she is the frontrunner for Best Actress. The film is so clichéd that you can predict every moment that's coming, and the whole supporting cast are exaggerated to an extreme. It's not that bad a film, but it is nowhere near one of the ten best of the year, not even twenty, or even thirty.


District 9
Nominated for: Best Picture, Film Editing, Visual Effects, Screenplay - Adapted

In a year of five nominees, this would not have made it, nor would The Blind Side (and three others I'll point out down the line). This is the most overrated film on the list, and I have never liked it, not since I've seen it. Fan love for this film makes it even worse in my mind. Sure, the concept is good and provides some good commentary, but the movie gets too heavy handed in its message, and too clichéd in its climax to live up to the level of originality people have claimed it holds. It's visual effects nom is certainly deserved, but the others aren't.


An Education
Nominated for: Best Picture, Actress - Leading (Carey Mulligan), Screenplay - Adapted

This film was decent, though its message is obvious. Mulligan is excellent in the lead role and would be my favorite to win if it weren't for Sandra Bullock. But this is one of the films that wouldn't be here if it weren't for the ten picture list, so you can't consider it too strongly. Check it out, it's good, but it won't win anything.


The Hurt Locker
Nominated for: Best Picture, Director, Actor - Leading (Jeremy Renner), Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Original Score, Screenplay - Original

The show is a stand-off between this little film which only made $13 million in its theater run, and Avatar, which has made $675 million so far. If The Hurt Locker wins, it will be the least amount of money a Best Picture winner has ever earned. Many people are pointing to Avatar to win because you should always follow the money. But what did that get The Dark Knight last year? It received eight nominations, but lost a Best Picture and Director nod. If the Academy was too blind to nominate that film this year, I can see why that would give Avatar a chance, since they want to boost their ratings. That is the whole point of this 10 picture round-up, to boost ratings so popular films like District 9 and The Blind Side make it in. Plus, there's a preferential ballot system in place that could really screw whoever wins. But Hurt Locker has Acting and Screenplay nominations, which means it is favorited by those groups, and Kathryn Bigelow won the DGA, so she has the directors on her side, and the Producers Guild gave the film the PGA. It's got a lot of love from those groups that Avatar doesn't.


Inglourious Basterds
Nominated for: Best Picture, Director, Actor - Supporting (Christoph Waltz), Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Cinematography, Screenplay - Original

Not a lot of people realize it, but Inglourious Basterds is the dark horse poised to take the top prize. It won the SAG for Best Ensemble, so we know it has that group's approval, and the SAG was key to predicting the Crash upset a mere four years ago. I would say that Basterds doesn't have a chance except if the following scenario plays out: it wins in the preferential balloting. I could see that happening. I'll explain the preferential ballot later on down the line. But just know that if Basterds upsets, it could be because of this. Plus, Tarantino may be owed his due.


Precious
Nominated for: Best Picture, Director, Actress - Leading (Gabourey Sidibe), Actress - Supporting (Mo'Nique), Film Editing, Screenplay - Adapted

This movie is quite devastating and quite good as well, though many argue it fills the "white person feels good about themselves" role. Whatever, I don't concern myself with that. It is a good story, well told, well done, and very heartbreaking, with great performances. Will it win anything? I think only Mo'Nique will win, and the rest will just be happy to be nominated. Some have argued that it is also very likely to win based on its Film Editing nomination, which is key to determining Best Pic. It has it, but something tells me Precious is not a force to be reckoned with.


A Serious Man
Nominated for: Best Picture, Screenplay - Original

I was ecstatic to see this film receive a nomination, but I have to concede that it is another of the five that wouldn't here in a normal year. Still, it is a terrific film, and the Coens haven't lost their touch yet. It will be nice to see them at the show this year.


Up
Nominated for: Best Picture, Sound Editing, Animated Feature, Sound Mixing, Original Score, Screenplay - Original

Up is only the second animated movie ever nominated for Best Picture, Beauty and the Beast being the other one, but I wouldn't really count it as official because there are ten nominees, and lets face it, it would not have made the cut on a short list of five. Still, it touts six nominations and it should take home Animated Feature and Original Score. So it won't be a total wash for Up.


Up in the Air
Nominated for: Best Picture, Director, Actor - Leading (George Clooney), Actress Supporting (Vera Farmiga), Actress - Supporting (Anna Kendrick), Screenplay - Adapted

This movie has the most nominations for acting and won't take any of them home. It is positioned to win Jason Reitman his first Oscar for Screenplay, which it deserves (though I would love to see In the Loop win), but otherwise, this was a film that had the heat back in October and November, and then lost its momentum. It still has a chance, I grant you, albeit a slim one. I had the pleasure to see this movie at an advanced screening in October with Roger Ebert himself in attendance, and the following week Reitman himself came to speak at my school. It is his best movie so far, but I think I will remember it more because it was a unique viewing experience for me.


The Preferential System:

Because there are ten nominees this year, the Academy has changed up the style of voting to accommodate all the nominees in the possibility of winning. Usually, the voter would just mark their vote as is normal; now, each voter has to rank the Best Picture nominees one through ten. The votes are tabulated and the films are ranked according to their votes.

Doesn't sound bad, right? Well, here's the bitch: the film that ranks 10th gets eliminated, and all the votes get redistributed to the number two film on their lists. Then the 9th gets eliminated, and those voter's next choices are redistributed. Then the eight. Then the seventh. And on and on and on down until there are only two standing, with one clear majority.

USA Today ran a great piece about the balloting system, illustrating how a film in the second position in the first round could easily take the number won spot. Now, a film needs a 50% majority vote to win, so any time that happens, the elimination game stops. But, with 6,000 voters, you get a variety of choices, so anything is possible.

This system would be all fine and dandy if people weren't fucking bloodsucking backstabbers. The preferential system is far from foolproof. Friends of Jim Cameron could easily rank Avatar number one and The Hurt Locker number ten, eliminating any chance that movie had of winning, rather then being decent human beings and just writing down what they actually think the rank should be. But no, human's suck. This is one way that Inglourious could sneak in: a stale-mate between Avatar and Hurt Locker could allow Inglourious to sneak through and take the big prize (I imagine it will be ranked second or third on most voter's ballots).

We'll see how it all plays out. There are only 10 days left in the polls, and 15 left until the big show. I'll put up my predictions on March 7th, a few hours before the show begins.

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