The 84th Annual Academy Awards

Well, that was one hell of a streamlined show. The Oscars receive a lot of criticism for being too bloated, running too long, and just overall being too much. Not last night. Last night, Billy Crystal started out with a segment I've long missed, a trip between all of last year's big movies, interacting with some stars, and adding a nice comedy to the mix. Then he moved into a song about the nine nominees, which I honestly couldn't hear because the music drowned him out. I did catch all he had to say about Extremely Loud, though: "Hanks has gone away." All that movie got. Good.

This is the first year since 2003 I have not seen all of the nominees for Best Picture. The only one I never made it to was Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close. I almost did a time or two, then decided I didn't like The Reader, so why should I like this one. Why should I even acknowledge its existence in the Oscar race? So I didn't. I'll just pretend Max von Sydow was up because, well, he's Max von Sydow.

One thing that seems to have become more common for Oscar is to spread the wealth a bit. Hugo and The Artist were both the top nominated films, and I didn't expect Hugo to win as much as it did (I predicted it would win two awards, and it ended up winning 5). On any conventional year, one would expect Hugo, after nearly sweeping the technical categories, to go along to start taking Screenplay, Director, and Picture. But the gears shifted back into the Artists favor, much as last year when The Social Network cleaned house early, before The King's Speech took over for the rest of the evening.

I'm all for acknowledging several movies, but shouldn't the best edited film be the best film? I attended a panel Saturday morning featuring five of the seven nominated editors (two for both the Artist and The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo), and while I would agree that GWTDT is certainly well edited, it runs on way too long. There is at least another ten to fifteen minutes after the central mysteries are solved that drag on and on, and I feel that the best edited film should not be the won you were hoping the next scene would be the last. I like Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall, but even they seemed surprised by their win.

Editing was the biggest upset, though Meryl Streep winning over Viola Davis was also fairly surprising. She's now been nominated 17 times and won 3 times, making her the best actor of all time according to the Academy. A lesson I've learned: don't vote for poor Viola Davis. I put a vote for her back in 2008 for Doubt, and that didn't work out, and when she was the sure thing, it makes me doubt (haha, get it) that she will ever win. Which is a shame, because she is a fine actress.

Billy Crystal should just host the show until he gets really old. He is very comfortable up on that stage, and though his song and dance routine is hackneyed, his self-deprecating winks were commendable (before the song, he said, "C'mon, you didn't think I wasn't going to do this?") The best line of the night came from him, when he said, "Nothing helps the economic crisis more then watching a bunch of millionaires give each other gold statues."

Overall, I liked this year's Oscars. Straight to the point. No bullshit. There was one fantastic number by Cirque de Soleil, but otherwise it was concise and to the point, and came in under three hours. Not bad. The only thing I would vote? Delete the Best Original Song category. With only two nominations this year, it was as irrelevant as ever.

Here is the rundown of what I guessed right, and what I didn't. My score is one worse this year, 16/24. Oh well.

Original Screenplay

Prediction/Winner: Midnight in Paris

Adapted Screenplay

Prediction/Winner: The Descendants

Visual Effects

Prediction/Winner: Hugo

Sound Mixing & Editing

Predictions: War Horse

Winner: Hugo

Live Action Short Film

Prediction: Tuba Atlantic

Winner: The Shore

Animated Short Film

Prediction/Winner: The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Original Song

Prediction/Winner: "Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets"

Original Score

Prediction/Winner: The Artist

Makeup

Prediction/Winner: The Iron Lady

Foreign Language Film

Prediction/Winner: A Separation

Film Editing

Prediction: The Artist

Winner: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo

Documentary Short

Prediction: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Winner: Saving Face

Documentary Feature

Prediction/Winner: Undefeated

Directing

Prediction/Winner: The Artist

Costume Design

Prediction: Anonymous

Winner: The Artist

Cinematography

Prediction: The Artist

Winner: Hugo

Art Direction

Prediction/Winner: Hugo

Animated Feature

Prediction/Winner: Rango

Supporting Actress

Prediction/Winner: Octavia Spencer in "The Help"

Leading Actress

Prediction: Viola Davis in "The Help"

Winner: Meryl Streep in "The Iron Lady"

Supporting Actor

Prediction/Winner: Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"

Leading Actor

Prediction/Winner: Jean Dujardin in "The Artist"

Best Picture

Prediction/Winner: The Artist

That's all!

The 84th Annual Academy Awards: My Predictions

This year, I didn't post a ten best list. Partly because I didn't see enough films, but also because I didn't feel like there was any one film I could truly name my favorite for the year. I would have gladly released a top 5, if there was something that I thought deserved to be on top. As it is now, my five favorite films would be The Descendants, Drive, Hugo, Moneyball, and 13 Assassins. And maybe Moneyball is my favorite?

So as it goes with this year's Oscars, there seems to be a unanimous opinion on what will clean house this year. The Artist is a behemoth, cleaning up most of the guild awards in its path. Some will argue it has not been seen, but The Hurt Locker had only grossed $17 million when it won, beating out the $7 billion grossed by Avatar. The Artist has grossed $31 million so far, though that is far less then the $100 million that The King's Speech and Slumdog Millionaire had garnered by Oscar time. Of course this is because it is Black and white and Silent; most people hear that descriptor and immediately go, "No thank you!" Maybe The Artist should win, so that people will go see it and discover hey, silent films aren't so bad!

We are of course operating under the presumption that people go see movies because they win Oscars, and I believe they do. A film wins Best Picture, which has to make you curious as to why, if nothing else so you can join in the sudden uprise of haters who wonder how this film, though decent, became best.

Me, I liked the Artist well enough. I saw it back in early December, before it had garnered hype. It's a cute film, though I feel it wears out its welcome about midway through. Think of Singin' in the Rain, if Singin' in the Rain was actually silent and had a darker climax. It's a delightful film, but nothing I'd consider the best. But then again, I don't know what I would consider the best.

Alright, enough rambling. Here are, plain and simple, my predictions. I've gone with the general consensus as far as the major categories are concerned (though I know there's an upset in there somewhere, and I fear it may be Max von Sydow, who though I adore, is in that Stephen Daldry-trite Extremely Loud). The tech categories, though, have led me to take greater risks in a few categories, mainly costumes. I've learned that the most extravagant costumes, and a quick google image search led me to my conclusion.

Best Original Screenplay:

Midnight in Paris

Best Adapted Screenplay:

The Descendants

Visual Effects

Hugo

Sound Mixing

War Horse

Sound Editing

War Horse

Live Action Short Film

Tuba Atlantic

Animated Short Film

The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore

Original Song

"Man or Muppet" from "The Muppets"

Original Score

The Artist

Makeup

The Iron Lady

Foreign Language Film

A Separation

Film Editing

The Artist

Documentary Short

The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Documentary Feature

Undefeated

Directing

The Artist

Costume Design

Anonymous

Cinematography

The Artist

Art Direction

Hugo

Animated Feature

Rango

Supporting Actress

Octavia Spencer in "The Help"

Leading Actress

Viola Davis in "The Help"

Supporting Actor

Christopher Plummer in "Beginners"

Leading Actor

Jean Dujardin in "The Artist"

Best Picture

"The Artist

82nd Annual Academy Awards: My Predictions

And another year comes to an end. This will be the third official post I've made about the Oscars and what film I believe is going to win. This year was a pretty good year, with a lot of great little films peppered in. Will Avatar win tonight? Probably, but I'm staying true to The Hurt Locker, and Basterds could pull through if the Actors theory holds up. Most categories are locked, with the two toss-ups being Original Screenplay an Picture. So, what are my predictions?

Leading Actor

Last year I coin-flipped and guessed Sean Penn would win, and hurrah, I was right! This year, Jeff Bridges is the clear favorite, and there is no reason he is going to lose. He has tons of love from his acting friends, who gave him a standing ovation at the SAG awards, and he's been cleaning house with every other show. Colin Firth is better, in a complex, layered, and emotional turn in A Single Man. Morgan Freeman embodied Nelson Mandela, and it was a fitting role because Mandela himself told Freeman he would like him to play him in a biopic. George Clooney was once the frontrunner, and has now fallen back to least likely with Jeremy Renner, who was the "surprise" nomination (not really, we all knew it was going to happen). Jeff Bridges, this is yours to lose.

Prediction: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart

Supporting Actor

The Academy has a had a fond fascination with serial killers these past couple years, Javier Bardem and Heath Ledger being the last two to win for psychotic characters. This year will be no different, with Christoph Waltz being the clear favorite (and, like Ledger, he has been since the summer), for playing the ruthlessly smart, selfish, and evil Hans Landa. Matt Damon sported a satisfactory South African accent, Woody Harrelson cried, Christopher Plummer was gruff I guess (didn't see this one), and Stanley Tucci was also an evil serial killer. But none of them have had as much heat behind them as Mr. Waltz, who will dance away with this award. If my presumption is correct, this will be the first award presented too, so the lack of suspense will be over with quickly.

Prediction: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds

Leading Actress

There are a lot of interesting performances in this category, but overall leading roles for men and women were weak this year. Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe should be the two duking it out for Best Actress, but Sandra Bullock somehow blasted in front of the competition and is now the clear frontrunner for this award. Admittedly, she gave a pretty good performance and was the only level-headed character in that entire film, but she certainly does not deserve an Oscar for it, not even a nomination (and how The Blind Side is even nominated is beyond me). Meryl Streep is the only one for a potential upset, but I don't see how Bullock can lose at this rate. The Academy loves a biopic performance, of which there are three in this case, so you gotta go with the most popular one (lesson learned from Marion Cotillard two years ago).

Prediction: Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side

Supporting Actress

The last two years this category has alluded me, but this year it is not doing it. Penelope Cruz is up again for Nine, but she is NOT winning this time; Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick are both nominated for their roles in Up in the Air, and they were both very good and should be happy to be there; and Maggie Gyllenhaal was the surprise nomination for Crazy Heart, but that film won't sweep. So, it's down to Mo'Nique, who has had buzz surround her since this film was mentioned way back when last year. Her performance was powerful and one of the best things about that movie, and it'll be a pleasure to see her win. Any other winner would be a huge upset.

Prediction: Mo'Nique in Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

Animated Feature

Pixar is in it again, and is going to win for sure, but it should be noted that this is the first year there are five nominees. Coraline is overrated if you ask me, but still decent; Fantastic Mr. Fox is a delightful film and a possible upset; The Princess and the Frog is only here because it brings back traditional animation; and The Secret of Kells is the little-wtf film that nobody has heard of, but I hear is quite good. If voters were required to see all the films I would put money on Kells, but since it is one of the popularity contest categories, the clear winner will be the best of the lot, Up, though I feel the Academy is tiring of handing this one to Pixar all the time. Missing from this category: Ponyo.

Prediction: Up

Art Direction

I've only seen one of the nominees in this category, and it is also the one that will likely win. Avatar's design is massive and impressive, realizing lush forests and a futuristic space world. Sherlock Holmes could be upset, but I think this is a locked category.

Prediction: Avatar

Cinematography

This category is a toss-up: Avatar, Hurt Locker, and The White Ribbon all could win this award. Avatar I disqualify because 60% of the movie is created by the computer, so a lot of that wasn't lighting by the DP anyways. White Ribbon has sumptuous black and white photography that is visually arresting and could very well pull in a sneak attack win. But, I think this is Hurt Locker's category, with it's beautiful imagery of slo-mo bomb explosions. Harry Potter stands no chance.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Costume Design

The hard lesson I have learned over the past two years is never defy the Costume Drama (Elizabeth and The Duchess won the prior two years), so I will go with The Young Victoria as my pick for the Costume award. Though watch, now Nine or Doctor Parnassus will win this award and throw off my lesson to myself. Bright Star, the other costume movie, could very will win as well, but it's not about royalty, so its costumes are more plain and less extravagant.

Prediction: The Young Victoria

Directing

This one should be a shoe-in lock for Bigelow. If Cameron wins, fuck the Academy. Bigelow made a better, more courageous film anyways. And it's time to end the 81-year history of white men winning this award. It's an historical moment for the Academy, and I don't see them voting the other way. Bigelow.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Documentary Feature

I don't pretend to know anything about this category since voters have to view all five films to cast a choice. I have seen two of them, and of the two the better made film is The Cove: it is exciting, dangerous, and conveys an important message. I don't see any other film in that category beating it; it's simply too damn entertaining. But, again, I haven't seen three of the nominees, so what do I know?

Prediction: The Cove

Documentary Short

I actually have seen one of the films nominated in this category, China's Unnatural Disaster, and that was a powerfully made film about a terrible disaster and the government's unwillingness to flinch on the matter. But another film, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (unseen by me) is the clear frontrunner because it deals with an issue that directly effects us as Americans. I can't judge the quality of the film, but it probably connected the most with Academy voters and will most likely win. But again, I haven't seen four of these films.

Prediction: The Last Truck: Closing of GM Plant

Film Editing

I feel this category is locked. What District 9 is doing here I'm not certain, but if The Hurt Locker wins, it should indicate a Best Pic victory (though who knows). If Avatar wins, then it will take Best Picture. Or not. Editing doesn't necessarily correlate, but one assumes it should. Still, Hurt Locker relies a lot on precise editing to build tension and heighten those explosion scenes, and it worked very well, so there's no reason it shouldn't win.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Foreign Language Film

Another category I'm not going to pretend to know anything about, since I have only seen The White Ribbon. A Prophet is supposed to be excellent, but I'm going to pick El Secreto De Sus Ojos to win. Why? No reason, but I'm not confident in any of the films so it seems like a good option. Remember The Lives of Others and Departures upsetting? Well, Kris Tapley predicted those upsets and is predicting Ojos, so I'm just going with him.

Prediction: El Secreto de Sus Ojos

Makeup

With only three nominees, the winner should be clear. Il Divo and The Young Victoria are nothing fantastic, but Star Trek had that all green lady. So it wins.

Prediction: Star Trek

Original Score

Michael Giacchino will finally get his due with his beautiful score for Up, though Fantastic Mr. Fox deserves recognition for its fun score as well. The Hurt Locker and Avatar were unmemorable, and Sherlock Holmes...I don't know it. But Up deserves it, and will get it.

Prediction: Up

Original Song

No strong showings this year, unlike the past two years when we got Jai Ho and Falling Slowly. The Wear Kind from Crazy Heart will undoubtedly win, since the others are all unmemorable (especially Princess and the Frog). Go T Bone!

Prediction: "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart) from Crazy Heart"

Short Film, Animated

I saw all the films this year, and wrote a review of all them already. I'm going with Logorama, although you should know that A Matter of Loaf and Death, the new Wallace & Gromit short, is the favorite and probably will win. But Logorama was something unique and very, very different. And I lot of people liked it, so I'm predicting an upset on Nick Park this year. Logorama all the way!

Prediction: Logorama

Short Film, Live Action

Again, I've seen all the films and already written a review on them. None of them were particularly strong, but you can probably go with The Door, since it is about Chernobyl and tugs at the heart strings. The others ranged from OK to good, but none stand out as Oscar bait more then The Door.

Prediction: The Door

Sound Editing & Mixing

They are different categories, but I'm lumping them together because my prediction for them both stands the same. Yes, they are very different arts, but I think Avatar is the clear winner for both. Of course, Hurt Locker could upset in the Mixing section, but otherwise this is Avatar's to lose.

Prediction for both: Avatar

Visual Effects

Locked. Avatar. Go home.

Prediction: Avatar

Screenplay, Adapted

This one is a lock for Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner. Up in the Air perfectly balances a multitude of themes and plots, and it wouldn't have been possible without a great script. I would love an In the Loop upset, but Up in the Air deserves it.

Prediction: Up in the Air

Screenplay, Original

This category is one of the biggest toss-ups, between the Guild-favorite Hurt Locker and Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds. Basterds didn't make a show at the WGA because Tarantino himself is not a member, which is fair. It just makes it harder for us prognosticators to decide who will win since we don't know which way the writers themselves lean. But the actors really like Basterds, and Tarantino has a gift for building long dialogue scenes, so I don't see this one losing. Hurt Locker works more on a visual level then a script level, and I'm sure Basterds is a more entertaining read.

Prediction: Inglourious Basterds

Best Picture

This year, we have ten films nominated for Best Picture, and a new preferential system that could really fuck with the results. Three movies stand-out as the possible winners. First, Avatar, which has made more then $2.6 billion worldwide, which makes it obviously a favorite with the public, but it lacks support from both the Writers and the Actors (it has no nominations in either of those categories). Cameron himself has said give Bigelow director, but give us Picture. However, I feel Picture should mean that best overall elements, and Avatar is purely a technical achievement. Now, Hurt Locker, which has been cleaning house at the major guild awards; the only thing it has going against it is that it only made $13 million domestic during its run in theaters. However, it is a very popular rental item, and has been listed for the last month on Netflix as "Long wait" for availability. People are watching it. Finally, Inglourious Basterds, the dark horse that took the SAG ensemble award. It definitely has strong acting, strong writing, and strong directing. It's a terrific film, and one that I bet could upset and actually take the award. However, it is also a fanboy film, and most of the members probably vote by what is most popular. However, if people try and fuck Avatar and Hurt Locker over by putting them at 10, then Basterds could win. At the end of the day, though, I'm going with Hurt Locker; it will probably lose, but it is the best film of all the nominees and one of the best of the decade.

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

And there you have it. I believe the show starts at 8:30/5:30 ET/PT, live all across the nation (and I guess in Australia). I'll come back after the show and tell how well I did. The worse I do, the drunker I'll be though.

LET'S DO THIS!

67th Golden Globes Predictions

Ah, it's officially that time of year: Awards Season. And with the Golden Globes officially slated for the Sunday after next (the 17th), I'm just giddy with making predictions. 'Tis the season to start selecting SAG, DGA, PGA, and WGA awards, until we reach the big kahuna, the Oscars.

So why I am releasing predictions 10 days before the televised event? Well, I don't really care about the Golden Globes, and I care less about who wins. I mean, c'mon, Nine, one of the worst reviewed movies of the year, is up for multiple awards, and Sandra Bullock is up for Best Actress in a Comedy for The Proposal. I hardly take the Globes very seriously (then again, I shouldn't take the Oscars so seriously, but I do). So, why not release my predictions? Here they are, along with my rationale.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Prediction: John Lithgow for Dexter

Why: This is honestly one of the few categories where I have a lot of interest in who wins. Anyone who saw the most recent season of Dexter will agree that Lithgow turned in one of the most chilling and deranged performances as the Trinity killer. Michael Emerson won the Emmy for Lost and is also really good, but I'm really pulling for Lithgow. Dexter has won too few awards at this point and needs some recognition.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Prediction: Jane Lynch - Glee

Why: No idea. But Glee is a really popular show, so I'll just pick it. Other prognosticators know better, but I don't.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Prediction: Brendan Gleeson - Into the Storm

Why: Again, no reason since I haven't seen any of the nominees, but Brendan Gleeson was awesome in In Bruges, Harry Potter, and Six Shooter so he should win.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Prediction: Jessica Lange - Grey Gardens

Why: Grey Gardens has two nominations in this category, and I'll be damned if Drew Barrymore is winning it. Though I haven't seen any noms, so what do I know?

Best Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Prediction: Into the Storm

Why: Brendan Gleeson, woot!

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical

Prediction: Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock

Why: HE ALWAYS WINS!

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical

Prediction: Lea Michele - Glee

Why: Because Glee is popular. Plus, she has a great voice (starred in Spring Awakening) and did a really good rendition of Defying Gravity. Though Edie Falco is pretty good bet depending on how popular Nurse Jackie is.

Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical

Prediction: 30 Rock

Why: While I keep touting Glee as being popular enough to win other categories, I think 30 Rock is the safe bet since it always wins this award. My personal preference show wise is The Office, but 30 Rock had a better 3rd Season then The Office had of a 5th season. So I got to give it to them.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Drama

Prediction: Michael C. Hall - Dexter

Why: I've predicted him EVERY time and he loses EVERY time. Theoretically he should win at some point...right?

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series - Drama

Prediction: January Jones - Mad Men

Why: Mad Men will actually probably win all the Drama categories, so I figure I should pencil it in for one of the three. Though watch, it will be the one category Mad Men doesn't win.

Best Television Series - Drama

Prediction: Dexter

Why: Almost as good as Season 1, and with an ending that made my Dad vow not to watch the show again, Season 4 of Dexter is truly a great run for the show, especially those last four episodes. Probably Mad Men, otherwise.

Best Original Song - Motion Picture

Prediction: "I See You" - Avatar

Why: Far less annoying and memorable then Celine Dion's tune from Titanic, I honestly don't know any of the songs and could care less which one of them wins.

Best Original Score - Motion Picture

Prediction: Karen O and Carter Burwell - Where the Wild Things Are

Why: This score has already been disqualified from the Original Score run at the Oscars, and really is the best of the nominated bunch. James Horner's score is just a retread of everything he's done in the past, though I wouldn't mind Michael Giacchino winning for Up; he is a fantastic and underrated composer. But this should go to Wild Things.

Best Screenplay - Motion Picture

Prediction: Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner - Up in the Air

Why: As far as screenplays go, this one is pretty solid. I'll be damned if Nancy Meyers or Neill Blomkamp is going to win this award, though Tarantino is overdue for his unique style. The Hurt Locker is certainly the best movie of the 5, but Up in the Air looks better on page then The Hurt Locker; that's a movie you need to see, you simply can't read it.

Best Director - Motion Picture

Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker

Why: Well, A, this was the best movie of the bunch, but also B, its time a woman won the award, and Bigelow is certainly deserving of it. This wouldn't be a pity prize, and I am fully behind The Hurt Locker going all the way this year in Awards Season. But after over 100 years of movies and 82 years of Academy Awards, its finally time a woman was honored...and it can all start here.

Best Foreign Language Film

Prediction: The White Ribbon

Why: I haven't seen any of the nominees due to their lack of release currently, but The White Ribbon won the Palme D'or (certainly no indicator of awards potential) and automatically becomes my number one choice until I start seeing some of these movies. FYI, Broken Embraces and The Maid have already been released, I just haven't seen them yet.

Best Animated Feature Film

Prediction: Up

Why: I'm shocked Ponyo, easily the best animated film of the year, is missing from this bunch, and I'm going with Pixar because they are the safe bet. But I smell a Fantastic Mr. Fox upset, which I would be fine with. Pixar has won their fair share, though I still favor Up over Wes Anderson's whimsical tale. Special note should to the fact this is the first time five animated films have been nominated, due to an abundance of the style this year.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Prediction: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

Why: Similar to Heath Ledger last year, Waltz picked up Oscar buzz during the film's summer release and has held on strong into awards season. Of course another of the nominees could win due the sheer boredom of handing out Supporting Actor to a villain every time, but Waltz's performance is so chilling that you have to surrender to its sheer awesomeness.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Prediction: Mo'nique - Precious

Why: The performance is great, though it is award-bait as well. But she is going to be the powerhouse to be reckoned with this season, unless one of the Up in the Air ladies pulls through.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

Prediction: Matt Damon - The Informant!

Why: I missed this movie while it was in theaters, but none of the nominees particularly stand out as strong candidates for this award. Daniel Day-Lewis could win simply because he's Daniel Day-Lewis, and Michael Stuhlbarg of A Serious Man could pull through as well. But honestly I'm flummoxed here and will go with what looked like a strong performance.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

Prediction: Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Why: She's nominated twice (also for It's Complicated) so she should win either for either performance, though I think her show as Julia Child will be most popular. The other three or just so unlikely (Julia Roberts, Marion Cotillard, and Sandra Bullock) that this is probably one of the only categories I'm certain of.

Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical

Prediction: (500) Days of Summer

Why: It won't win, this I am really sure of, but I have no idea which of the nominees could win, and so I am left with my favorite movie of the two I saw in this category. The Hangover would be a shocker, so I highly doubt that, and can only really see Julie & Julia being a strong contender, along with Nine. I'd be fine if Summer or J/J won, but if the other three win (It's Complicated is the last nomination) the eck.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama

Prediction: George Clooney - Up in the Air

Why: Jeremy Renner was shockingly not nominated here, and would be my first choice otherwise. Clooney has been gathering a small storm of praise and seems like a safe and likely choice, though Colin Firth and Jeff Bridges for A Single Man and Crazy Heart (both currently unseen by me), respectively seem to be power house performances ready to erupt into awards frenzy. Tobey Maguire is the real wtf here, and I'll just pretend that Jeremy Renner's version of military machismo is nominated.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama

Prediction: Gabourey Sidibe - Precious

Why: This category is going to be a massive battle between Carey Mulligan and Gabourey "Gabby" Sidibe. I'm not sure where the Hollywood Foreign Press' tastes lie, but Sidibe gives the more obvious "courageous" performance, though Mulligan is required to build a character more. I'm torn between the two and would be happy if either won, but I think this is going to be Gabby's year, and then we'll never hear from her again (Jennifer Hudson anyone?), whereas Mulligan will probably continue to build her charm and roles.

Best Motion Picture - Drama

Prediction: The Hurt Locker

Why: Having seen all the nominees and liking or loving all of them, I can rightly say this is the strongest category in the entire show. I could see any of these movies winning, honestly, for various reasons. When it comes to Oscar I pick what I think will win, but since this is the Globes and I don't care, I'll pick what I think should win. Up in the Air seems like a very good second place or alternate winner, though if Avatar is going to start rearing its head this is where it will happen. But I hope Bigelow's war epic sweeps the season, and this is the place to start.

If you live in ET/CT then tune in for a live broadcast of the Globes! Otherwise us West Coasters will just get the winners as they are posted online and then watch the Awards show ignorant of what is going to happen.