83rd Annual Academy Awards

Well, I did one worse then last year. If only I had changed one prediction to be right, I would have tied my record. Still, 16/24 is respectable enough I suppose. Here is the last of what I got wrong (because I don't feel like retyping everything).

Supporting Actress

Prediction: Hailee Steinfeld for "True Grit"

Winner: Melissa Leo for "The Fighter"

Art Direction

Prediction: Inception

Winner: Alice in Wonderland

Lesson Learned: Never bet against Tim Burton for Art Direction. Sweeney Todd upset three years ago.

Cinematography

Prediction: True Grit

Winner: Inception

Thoughts: It did look pretty sweet on IMAX.

Directing

Prediction: The Social Network

Winner: The King's Speech

Lesson Learned: Go with DGA

Documentary Feature

Prediction: Exit Through the Gift Shop

Winner: Inside Job

Original Score

Prediction: The King's Speech

Winner: The Social Network

Animated Short Film

Prediction: The Gruffalo

Winner: The Lost Thing

Live Action Short Film

Prediction: Na Wewe

Winner: God of Love

83rd Annual Academy Awards: My Predictions

So here we are, once again, another Academy Awards ceremony. Every year we go and make our picks for who is going to win what. This year is a particularly exciting race because we have The Social Network, the critics darling (and my favorite film of the year) against the more audience-pleasing The King's Speech. Its fun to not have a sure thing for the Best Picture (last year's Hurt Locker v. Avatar was a fun duel), but King's Speech is pretty much guaranteed to win. That said, there are only 10 categories that I'm certain of, and 14 I'm hesitant of. After last year's Up in the Air upset for Adapted Screenplay (Precious being the winner), I am now sizing up all the sure things (Toy Story 3 for animated, Christian Bale for Supporting Actor) and debating which one won't happen. It's a lot of speculation, so here it goes, my picks for the winners at this year's 83rd Annual Academy Awards:

Leading Actor

This one is a sure thing. If there is any category you should not bet against, it is this one. Colin Firth has locked this prize since, well, whenever the King's Speech debuted (I think it was at Toronto). Javier Bardem is the surprise nom for Alejandro Gonzales-Inarritu's Biutiful, and Jeff Bridges, Jesse Eisenberg, and James Franco all did terrific work. But its the one J-name that will win this award, and though he should have won last year for A Single Man, Colin Firth still deserves the prize.

My Prediction: Colin Firth for "The King's Speech"

Supporting Actor

The last couple of years this category has been dominated by sadistic serial killers, from Javier Bardem's Anton Chigurh through Heath Ledger's Joker and Christoph Waltz's Hans Landa. Jeremy Renner is the closest thing we get to a bad guy this year, and he's not all that bad anyways. Christian Bale was the emotional center of The Fighter, and provided the film with its best moments. He has cleaned house at every awards show, and rightly deserves to charge on to the Oscar. But many people have speculated Geoffrey Rush could upset in this category for his terrific turn as King George VI's speech therapist, Lionel Logue. It is difficult to imagine the film without Rush. That being said, I think the Academy will go with Bale, who gives the showier performance.

My Prediction: Christian Bale for "The Fighter"

Leading Actress

There are no sure things. But it would be foolish to bet against Natalie Portman's performance in Black Swan. It may not be the best of the year, but its the role that has the most acting in it, and thats all you need for the Academy. Michelle Williams, Jennifer Lawrence, and Annette Bening all give terrific performances in their respective roles, and some are even calling for a Bening upset (Nicole Kidman's performance remains unseen by me). But I don't see anyone else winning besides Portman.

My Prediction: Natalie Portman for "Black Swan"

Supporting Actress

Now HERE is where I am predicting an upset. Melissa Leo has been sweeping all the awards up, from guild to globe, and is the frontrunner and favorite to win the award. However, there is another nominee, one Hailee Steinfeld, who gives the best performance in True Grit (in fact, she is a lead character), and yet finds herself relegated to this category because she is young and doesn't stand a chance against the titans of the lead actresses (for my money I'd love to see her nominated in the leading category just because she would give Portman a run for her money). If the Academy goes for a King's Speech sweep, then Helena Bonham Carter could take this one, but I highly doubt it. I'm going with Steinfeld, a newcomer to be sure, but one who is nominated in the wrong category and deserves to be recognized for it.

My Prediction: Hailee Steinfeld for "True Grit"

Animated Feature

Now this category is a sure thing right? Right? How to Train Your Dragon beat Toy Story 3 at the Annie Awards (awards for animation), but Kung Fu Panda topped Wall•E two years ago and failed to win. Plus, TS3 is nominated for Best Picture, so it is pretty much designated the favorite. You never know, though. Still, I'm going for the sure thing.

My Prediction: Toy Story 3

Art Direction

A lot of prognosticators are predicting the King's Speech for this one, which I don't understand. Inception and Alice in Wonderland are two very visual movies that required a lot more imagination then the King's Speech, which hardly excels in any technical categories. While I like the Alice in Wonderland design, I felt it was too muddy and dark. Inception creates dream spaces, houses that exist on water, crumbling buildings, rotating hallways, and much more. It's a perfect marriage of visual and practical effects, and creates a fantastic city scape. The King's Speech, alternatively, was shot on a location previously used by a Gay Porn Film, so you decide.

My Prediction: Inception

Cinematography

Roger Deakins has been nominated 9 times now, for The Shawshank Redemption, Fargo, Kundun, O Brother, The Man Who Wasn't There, No Country for Old Men, The Assassination of Jesse James, The Reader, and now True Grit. He's never won. It's time.

My Prediction: True Grit

Costume Design

So I have learned to never bet against the costume drama. The Young Victoria, Elizabeth, and The Duchess have all won. The King's Speech in the common sense choice, but are the costumes really that impressive? Especially when you have a nomination like Alice in Wonderland, which excelled at the costumes designed for the Mad Hatter, the Red Queen, and various other characters. The King's Speech is far and above the favorite, but I'm going to have to go against conventional wisdom. Alice in Wonderland is a close second, plus I don't feel the King's Speech to be a Costume Drama.

My Prediction: Alice in Wonderland

Directing

Now this is a big category. Tom Hooper is the obvious favorite to win, especially since he won the DGA award and The King's Speech seems to have everyone else's vote. But a lot of people are predicting a David Fincher upset here. The Coens have won before, and everyone else is new to this race. The only reason I can predicate a Fincher win is because he won at the BAFTAs, the British Oscars. Back in 2002, Rob Marshall won the DGA and yet somehow Polanski upset him for Director. Polanski had previously won the BAFTA for best directing. It's a long shot, and of course logically Fincher's win should indicate a Social Network win...but Fincher is a fantastic, interesting director, a complex man who knows exactly what he wants and knows how to get it. I truly think this is his award.

My Prediction: The Social Network

Documentary Feature

I'm probably going out on more limbs this year then others, but the voters DO have to see all the nominees in this category (and foreign language and all the shorts) if they want to cast a ballot. The clear favorite is Inside Job, a well made look at the financial collapse of 2008, what caused it, what was the result, and what greedy fat bastards people who run banks are. But there's another, much better documentary called Exit Through the Gift Shop, which details the street art movement and the man who documented it. Co-directed by the elusive Banksy (who is nominated), this is my favorite and one that clearly should win. I'm predicting with my heart instead of my head, so we'll see if it pays off.

My Prediction: Exit Through the Gift Shop

Documentary Short

I have no idea. Honestly. The most predicted is Strangers No More. I'll go with that.

My Prediction: Strangers No More

Film Editing

Now here is a category that I'm sure of. The Social Network has pitch-perfect editing, seamlessly moving us between two depositions explaining the current story, and the current story itself. Built out of thousands of hours of footage (Fincher likes to overshoot), they have constructed a perfect example of great editing. How can I tell? The best editing happens when you don't even notice there is editing. Its invisible. And the editing hear works seamlessly to build the performances, the music, and the plot. The only reason King's Speech will win is if it is going to sweep tonight.

My Prediction: The Social Network

Foreign Language Film

I have only seen Dogtooth, which is a highly disturbing film about homeschooled kids who never leave their property. I highly doubt the Academy will make this film the winner, and it probably doesn't deserve it anyways. The favorite is a Danish film called In a Better World, which I have not seen. I'll go with that.

My Prediction: In a Better World

Makeup

An uninspired round-up of nominees this year. The Wolfman is probably the most likely to win, since it has creature makeup and whatnot. Though I guess Barney's Version could win, since Paul Giamatti is aged significantly in it.

My Prediction: The Wolfman

Original Score

As much as I want Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross to win, this is one category that I know King's Speech will take. Alexandre Desplat is a terrific composer (his Fantastic Mr. Fox score was a nice touch to the film), and I see him winning this one. Reznor and Ross have composed a score unlike anything we've heard before, and the Academy usually shies away from that stuff. A shame.

My Prediction: The King's Speech

Original Song

Nothing memorable here. I don't even know the songs. Randy Newman and A.R. Rahman are both veterans of the award. How about Newman? I don't know. I'll go with him. I hope Country Strong doesn't win, because it is essentially Crazy Heart with Gwyenth Paltrow.

My Prediction: "We Belong Together" from Toy Story 3

Animated Short Film

I deeply regret having not seen any of the short films this year. I've seen Day & Night, which preceded Toy Story 3 in theaters. But I hear The Gruffalo is a favorite. This one's a crapshoot.

My Prediction: The Gruffalo

Live Action Short Film

Another crapshoot.

My Prediction: Na Wewe

Sound Editing & Mixing

Last year I was completely wrong here. Oops. The Hurt Locker when I predicted Avatar (I thought it would win one of the awards). Well, Inception seems like a sure thing here. It's technically a strong film, and its sound work helped to create an amazing dreamscape.

My Predictions: Inception

Visual Effects

Usually the easiest-to-call category. Inception will for sure win this one, if nothing else.

My Prediction: Inception

Adapted Screenplay

Out of all the awards of the night, this is the one The Social Network is guaranteed to win. Aaron Sorkin's terrific screenplay is the center of the film, as it is mostly about dialogue. All the characters talk at a rapid fire pace, and the opening scene is one of the finest examples of dialogue in a long time.

My Prediction: The Social Network

Original Screenplay

Here The King's Speech will win. Another Year is the best screenplay of the bunch, but The King's Speech will definitely win. No contest.

Best Picture

Here it is, the big kahuna. We have a distressed ballerina, a has-been boxer, a team that infiltrates dreams, lesbian moms dealing with normal people issues, a king who has trouble speaking, a man who gets stuck between a rock and a hard place, the invention of a social networking site, toys dealing with abandonment issues, a young girl hunting her father's killer, and a young girl looking for her father. The King's Speech seems to have been a lock for this award since the word go, and even though the Social Network posed a small threat, it has since receded into the background. The King's Speech will win this award, for sure. I know it is not a good idea to pick this for best pic when I have picked the Social Network for so many other categories, but that's the way I see it. This is how it will play out.

My Prediction: The King's Speech

The Awards start tonight, 8:30/5:30 ET/PT. I'll post my list of how well I did either during or after the show.

Ebert Presents...

The nightmare of the two Bens is a thing of the past. A.O. Scott and Michael Phillips had their brief moment in the sun. But inevitably, without Roger Ebert attached to the program, Buena Vista had no reason to continue the At the Movies show, with its decreasing popularity. Maybe if they had gone for Scott and Phillips first instead of the flash of the young Ben Lyons, but alas, no.

It has been common knowledge for those of us who care that Roger Ebert, who owns the thumbs trademark, has been shopping around the different networks to find a home for his version of the At the Movies show. Now he has finally found a home, at the old studio where he and Siskel, more then 30 years ago, began their At the Movies show.

The balcony is back, ladies and gentlemen. But of course our handicapped Ebert cannot himself be a co-host as he lacks speaking capabilities and thus could not enter into banter with his co-host. Instead, we get Christy Lemire of the Associated Press and Ignatiy Vishnevetsky of Mubi.com. Lemire is a seasoned critic who guest-hosted with Richard Roeper back when the show was cycling reviewers during Ebert's illness. Vishnevetsky is a more curious figure. Born in the Soviet Union, he moved to America when he was 8 and then eventually to Chicago because he could find more movies here. He manages the Odd Obsessions video store and was offered this position when Ebert heard him speaking at the Lake Street Screening Room and was rather impressed by his eloquence and charisma.

So how do the hosts hold up? Lemire is good, and if you saw her episodes with Roeper, then she pretty much performs as expected. Vishnevetsky is everything ABC wishes Ben Lyons would have been: he's young, charismatic, but what is especially important is that he comes to the table with a deep knowledge of film. He's a smart guy who knows how to say something meaningful about a film, good or bad, whereas Lyons would always spit out really (un)witty taglines for the ads.

But the show still lacks the key element that made Siskel and Ebert so good: the way they would argue. The co-hosts are very cordial, which is to be expected as these two people, I assume, didn't know each other before Vishnevetsky was hired for the show. They are still getting to know each other just as we the audience are getting to know them. But what really drove the old show wasn't just seeing Siskel and Ebert declare their love for a film (my favorite examples of this are Hoop Dreams, Pulp Fiction, and Fargo), it was also seeing them go at each others throat. Of course, I don't want Lemire and Vishnevetsky doing this for the sake of our amusement, and I know they won't. I trust that as they get more comfortable with each other, they will build a rapport that will keep us coming back each week.

The show's other nice touch is additional segments from outside contributors, including bloggers, other critics, and political analysts. Since this program is being broadcast on public television, there are no bigwig producers weighing down on the show to keep it flashy. Instead, there are some terrific segments that you wouldn't expect from any show today. A mock-Citizen Kane trailer introduces the principal players in the show, as well as Ebert's wife Chaz. Its a hilarious and fun segment. Kim Morgan also provides a look back to The Third Man (1949) and shoots her review as if she was apart of the film. And just this past week, political analyst Jeff Greenfield provided a look at why the president, in political movies, always gives a speech at the end that causes the entire crowd to go wild. This is something, Greenfield assures us, that never happens in real life.

And of course, there's Roger's Office, a brief segment where Ebert himself reviews a current film. Of course since he can't speak for himself we get guest voices to convey his words to us. Werner Herzog supplies Ebert's voice for his review of My Dog Tulip, and in the past two episodes Bill Curtis has been taken over the role. We only glimpse Ebert briefly, at the beginning as he types and then at the end when we get his final opinion. These brief snapshots of Ebert are a nice reminder of the old days.

It's a satisfying, if safe, new show that will allow us to get our weekly reviews again, something I have been missing since Scott and Phillips signed off back in August. Recently I was watching TV and a review for the Mechanic came on. The ad was displaying reviews, and mentioned the film received "Two Thumbs Up." I smiled and laughed, because it feels good having those thumbs back after a long four year hiatus.