The 86th Annual Academy Awards: Won vs. Predicted

Well gang, it was quite a year. I didn't see the ceremony, but what a nailbiter finish. I was at work but a good friend kept me up to date the entire time, so it was almost the same as watching. I got 20/24 right, continuing my trend of doing better every year. What follows is the breakdown of won vs Predicted.

Best Supporting Actor
Predicted/Won: Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club

Best Costume Design
Predicted/Won: The Great Gatsby

Best Makeup
Predicted/Won: Dallas Buyers Club

Best Animated Short
Predicted: Get a Horse!
Won: Mr. Hublot

Best Animated Feature
Predicted/Won: Frozen

Best Visual Effects
Predicted/Won: Gravity

Best Live Action Short
Predicted/Won: Helium

Best Documentary Short
Predicted/Won: The Lady in Number 6

Best Documentary Feature
Predicted/Won: Twenty Feet From Stardom

Best Foreign Film
Predicted/Won: The Great Beauty

Best Sound Mixing
Predicted/Won: Gravity

Best Sound Editing
Predicted/Won: Gravity

Best Supporting Actress
Predicted/Won: Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years of Slave

Best Cinematography
Predicted/Won: Gravity

Best Editing
Predicted: Captain Phillips
Won: Gravity

Best Production Design
Predicted/Won: The Great Gatsby

Best Original Score
Predicted/Won: Gravity

Best Original Song
Predicted/Won: Let It Go from Frozen

Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted/Won: 12 Years a Slave

Best Original Screenplay
Predicted: American Hustle
Won: Her

Best Director
Predicted/Won: Gravity

Best Actress
Predicted/Won: Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine

Best Actor
Predicted/Won: Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club

Best Picture
Predicted: Gravity
Won: 12 Years a Slave

Final Thoughts: I always learn something new at every Oscars, and this year I learned that you don't vote for the film with SAG or WGA backing. Also, the preferential balloting system has ushered in a new era where the wealth is spread around a little bit. I guarantee you if Best Picture was as simple as tabulating how many voted for which one, very few could justify picking 12 Years when they had given Gravity so many awards. Or they would have handed 12 Years more awards to justify its win. Either way, the unpredictability of this year's Best Picture race proves that sometimes a little drama can be found on Oscar night. Though if I still got 20 categories right it wasn't THAT exciting of a night.

Top 10 of 2013

Yeah, yeah, I know. 2013 ended two months ago. But I don't have the free time I once did pre-2011. I'm a busy, responsible adult now, so I have two days a week now to get my movie viewing done. And sometimes I don't feel like going to the movies. It's taken me awhile, but I've finally got around to seeing enough films that I'm confident in releasing a top 10. Also, the Oscars are tomorrow so no one is going to give a damn after that.

#10. Gravity, 91 min. PG-13

I saw this movie in October 2012 at a special focus group screening. I walked away fairly impressed, but had signed a non-disclosure agreement, so talking about it was a big no-no until it was released. I haven't seen it since, but it has stuck with me after all this time and though what I saw is probably a little different from the final product, it was still a mesmerizing thrill-ride. Cuaron is a modern master of suspense and thrills, and every time he releases a new picture it is a rare treat.

#9. Fruitvale Station, 85 min. R

While I have some issues with how great this movie makes its protagonist, Oscar Grant (Michael B. Jordan) seem, and the heavy foreshadowing, especially when his mother (Octavia Spencer) insists he use public transit instead of driving to downtown San Fran (which leads to her feeling guilty about the events that end the film). But overall, it's a well told retelling of the true incident that happened at Fruitvale station in Oakland on New Year's Eve 2008. Michael B. Jordan is terrific and the movie really pulls on your emotional strings at the end (nearly brought me to tears), so besides a few flaws, this was a solid film.

#8. Dallas Buyers Club, 117 min. R

The film that will win McConaughey and Jared Leto oscars is a fantastic tale of a Dallas cowboy who finds out he has contracted AIDs and decides to smuggle drugs from Mexico that seem to help with the disease more than the highly touted AZT. McConaughey transforms from a smug, self-centered homophobe to someone who understands that homosexuals are human beings too, even though he is exploiting them (though to a much lesser extent than the FDA was). It's an emotionally gripping film that solidifies McConaughey's place as one of our finest actors of this generation.

#7. 12 Years a Slave, 134 min. R

The incredible true story of Solomon Northup, who was kidnapped and sold into slavery for 12 years before he miraculously escaped. Chiwetel Ejiofor is fantastic as Northup, and Michael Fassbender, Lupita Nyong'o, Paul Giamatti, Benedict Cumberbatch, and Paul Dano round out a terrific cast that sheds the image of the nobel slave owner, a thought Gone with the Wind would have us believe, and bares the true rotten soul of slavery. It's not the first piece to do it, but it is maybe the most significant film on slavery ever made, something that we tackle so rarely because, unlike the Holocaust, it is a very dark chapter of our history. But nonetheless, Steve McQueen's retelling of this remarkably true story is harrowing and horrifying.

#6. The Wolf of Wall Street, 180 min. R

Very few film take you on the thrill ride that is Wolf of Wall Street. This film is about excess and is, itself, excess in every sense. It's long, it features multiple scenes of the main characters partying, spending money, and doing all sorts of drugs. Of all the movies Martin Scorsese has made, Leonardo DiCaprio's Jordan Belfort is probably his most despicable. That may be a bold statement considering The Departed, Goodfellas, and Taxi Driver, but Belfort lives a life so extravagant its revolting, and when he is given an out, he decides to keep on playing the game. It's a remarkable film, with great performances and set pieces throughout, and by the end of it you'll be left overwhelmed and amazed that someone could live life so large.

#5. The Act of Killing, 115 min. NR

This is a one-of-a-kind documentary, about some truly horrible people gloating about the heinous acts they have committed. Director Joshua Oppenheimer and an anonymous co-director began documenting the lavish lifestyle that mobsters in Indonesia live, after a genocide the government sanctioned for the extermination of all communists. What these men did is disgusting, and even more so is how they are treated like celebrities for their actions. The movie follows one mobster, Anwar Congo, who it seems undergoes an awakening, and by the end is retching in a way as if the guilt of his actions have finally caught up with him. It's an amazing movie, one you should seek out immediately (it's on Netflix Instant, so no excuses).

#4. Captain Phillips, 134 min. PG-13

My favorite genre is the thriller, so whenever a fine example of what a thriller is comes along, I can't help but heap praise on it. I know the controversy around how much of a hero the real Phillips was (apparently he was kind of a son-of-a-bitch), but honestly I don't care that much. What matters is that this is a tightly wound, edge-of-your-seat thrill ride that, even though you know the outcome, keeps you in suspense. Tom Hanks as Phillips and Barkhad Abdi as the lead pirate (at least of the small group that takes the ship) are both fantastic, and Hanks gives his best performance in years in a final two minutes unlike any I've before.

#3. Her, 126 min. R

Director Spike Jonze has yet to make a film I don't consider one of the best of their respective years. And here, he creates his most compelling film yet. Joaquin Phoenix is Theodore Twombly, a recently-divorced lonely man how befriends a highly advanced OS system. The friendship grows to a romantic relationship, and like the best sci-fi parables, it is about our present and future at the same time. So many people are shown becoming obsessed with their devices, a reality that is already true for our times. And yet, the movie never sneers down or belittles this behavior, instead taking it a face value and actually making it kind of sweet. It would be too easy to make fun of this behavior and Jonze strikes a magnificent balance. Not to mention the fantastic production design which realizes a futuristic Los Angeles by marring LA with Shanghai.

#2. Inside Llewyn Davis, 104 min. R

The Coen Brothers always have a way of making movie that surprises you. Inside Llewyn Davis is the latest in a long run of hits for them, focusing on the emerging folk scene in early 60s New York. The main character Llewyn Davis (Oscar Isaac) is a fairly unlikable guy, but he's been hit with hard times and is understandably very bitter about his situation. Simply reveling in the Coens' universe is always a treat, and here we are provided with a range of character from John Goodman's Jazz man, to Justin Timberlake in a quiet but effective performance, to the spirited parody song Please, Mr. Kennedy. It's a film about atmosphere and mood, and achieves both magnificently.

#1. Before Midnight, 109 min. R

I have a confession: I still haven't seen Before Sunrise (1995), the film of two young lovers who meet cute on a train one night. I have seen Before Sunset (2004), which was a fantastic reunion for the characters. Now we have Before Midnight, which tells the story so often forgotten in Hollywood romantic comedies: what happens after the Hooneymoon.  True Jesse and Celine (Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy) aren't married, but they have two girls and have settled down together. The movie chronicles another day in their life, this time one that culminates in an explosive argument that threatens to end their 18-year courtship. Whether they remain together is unclear, but what we are treated to is exquisite dialogue, real people, and a film that isn't afraid to, once again, leave its audience wondering how Jesse and Celine's relationship continue. Perhaps in 2022, when Hawke are Delpy are in their 50s, we'll get another check-in. Either way, this is a satisfying, hypnotizing tale of a romance that may have waned, but is still strong.


Other odds and ends:
Best Director: Spike Jonze for Her
Best Actor: Joaquin Phoenix for Her
Best Actress: Julie Delpy for Before Midnight
Best Supporting Actor: Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave

Worst Film of 2013: The Lone Ranger
Most Overrated Film of 2013: Elysium

The 86th Annual Academy Awards Predictions

For the first time in 15 years, I will not be able to watch the Oscar telecast on Sunday night. I'll still be paying attention as much as possible, but I am now pursuing a career in the entertainment industry and this particular jobs requires me on Sundays. This won't stop me from making my predictions, but I'm decidedly less invested this year than others, which is a shame because the Best Picture outcome at this point could go to two big films. My predictions are, as follows:

Best Makeup:
Dallas Buyers Club
While I would love to see Jackass win, especially because the makeup on Johnny Knoxville was really, really good. But since I don't see Academy members ticking this one off, and The Lone Ranger is a pretty big flop that's not that impressive, that leaves Dallas as the one to lose it.

Best Song:
Let it Go
How could it not be Let it Go? The album has made tons of money for Disney (not to mention the movie itself), and even though Pharrell's Happy has made it to the top of the charts, I don't see this going any other way. The academy generally favors Disney power ballads.

Best Score
Gravity
My preference would be Her, but Gravity is going to clean house this year, so its a safe bet to pin it for every technical category.

Best Editing
Captain Phillips
Except for editing, which Gravity has very little of in favor of Cuaron's signature tracking shots. Captain Phillips, on the other hand, is the most heavily edited film of the bunch and won the ACE Eddie for Best Editing - Drama, which is usually a good indicator. American Hustle took Best Editing - Comedy, so it's probably the most likely to upset.

Best Visual Effects
Gravity
I mean, what else would it be?

Best Live Action Short
Helium
I didn't see these shorts, so I'm going with the general consensus here.

Best Animated Short
Get a Horse!
I have seen all of these films, and without a doubt Disney's Mickey short Get a Horse! is the strongest of the bunch. Pretty much no contest here.

Best Animated Feature
Frozen
I've seen 4 of the 5, and unless the Academy is feeling super sentimental towards Miyazaki, this is Frozen's to lose. Ernest & Celestine remains unseen by me, but honestly, Frozen is the best of the bunch, though The Croods and Despicable Me 2 aren't exactly stiff competition.

Best Documentary Short
The Lady in Number 6
Didn't see these, so again, general consensus here.

Best Documentary Feature
20 Feet From Stardom
Honestly this one is a toss-up between Stardom and Act of Killing, but somehow I feel the Academy will choose the inspiring, uplifting chronicle of background singers over the tale of genocidal Philippinos re-enacting their war crimes. Act of Killing is amazing one of the best films of the year, but considering how depressing most Oscar winning movies are, there's gotta be one happy movie that wins.

Sound Editing & Mixing
Gravity
All Is Lost could upset in the sound editing category, as that whole film relies on it's sound design. But, unless Academy voters saw that film, they'll go with the heavy favorite Gravity.

Foreign Language Film
The Great Beauty
It's the only one I've seen and is also favorite to win. I don't know enough about the other films to determine if they could upset here, though I wouldn't be very surprised by an upset as The Great Beauty is not the most Academy-friendly film I've seen.

Best Costume Design
The Great Gatsby
Rule of thumb is to always go with the most lavish film. Though American Hustle is the likely upset here.

Best Cinematography
Gravity
Seems to be a lock for Gravity, though I contest whether this movie really qualifies since most of it was created in a computer. Yes, I know the DP probably oversaw every shot to make sure it looked right, but that's not quite the same to me as actually being on location getting gorgeous cinematography. Plus, if CGI cinematography can win (as it has for Avatar and Life of Pi) why can't motion-capture actors win (like Andy Serkis and Zoe Saldana)? Double standard, Academy. Also, poor Roger Deakins will go home empty handed for the 11th time.

Production Design
The Great Gatsby
Again, most lavish film. Some people are picking Gravity, though I can't imagine why. Couple of space stations and interiors. Not like Gatsby's extravagant mansion.

Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years a Slave
Although I prefer Before Midnight or The Wolf of Wall Street, the language of 12 Years a Slave is very distinguished, and if it's going to win the big prize, it has to collect in a few other places.

Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
I really believer Her could upset here, but it's hard to imagine American Hustle having 10 nominations and going home completely empty-handed. But Her is far-and-away one of the best screenplays of the year.

Best Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong'o for 12 Years a Slave
Continuing some awards for 12 Years is the supporting actress, which could go to Jennifer Lawrence though I really don't want it to. She's a great persona and everyone loves her, but she is not the best of this category (I'd take Sally Hawkins or June Squibb over her). Plus, Lupita's Patsey is the most heartbreaking character in the movie.

Best Supporting Actor
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
He's the favorite, and though he did a fine job, I'd love to see Barkhad Abdi's Somalian pirate take home the prize. One of the best characters of the year.

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
None of these nominees are really that impressive, and I've heard a list of far better performances that I won't repeat here. But I suppose Cate Blanchett was the most interesting of the group.

Best Actor
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
McConaughey has undergone a tremendous journey from beach bum to generally respected actor. From Lincoln Lawyer, Bernie, Killer Joe, Magic Mike, and Mud, McConaughey has built a new image for himself that is completed by his performance as the arrogant dealer of FDA un-approved drugs that seemed to help AIDs patients more than AZT did. I'd love to see Leo win, as The Wolf of Wall Street is probably the first film to prove he has range. Chiwetel Ejiofor also gives a solid performance as the humiliated, wrongfully imprisoned Solmon Northup. But McConaughey is the one to beat.

Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
Unlike last year, when Ben Affleck won the DGA but was not nominated for Best Director, we have the DGA matching 4 of the 5 Oscar nominees (instead 2 of the 5). And since Cuaron won there, there's no doubt it will win here.

Best Picture
Gravity
No one knows what is going to win. They might pretend like they do, but honestly, they don't. The SAG chose American Hustle for their Best Ensemble Award, DGA went with Gravity, and PGA had a rare tie between 12 Years and Gravity. 12 Years also won the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. So why Gravity? The only reason I can see it not winning is because, like last year's Life of Pi, it is mostly a story about one person stranded, and therefore will not garner the support of the humongous acting branch. It also doesn't have a screenplay nomination, but that didn't stop Titanic from winning, and since Sandra Bullock is nominated I think it stands a pretty good chance. It's also an exciting space adventure that has garnered accolades from many critics and was a huge hit with the audiences, raking in $269 million domestically. It would be more predictable for 12 Years to win, as it is the big, emotional, important historical drama, but unlike last year when Argo was the heavy favorite from almost everywhere, this year I don't think the support is as universally strong for 12 Years. Don't get me wrong, if 12 Years wins I'll be happy, but something is telling me that the sci-fi genre is due its first Oscar.

Monday or Sunday night I'll post how I did. To note, I haven't been wrong about Best Picture since 2006, when The Departed won. I pride myself in this 7-year streak, but maybe it's time for that to end. I won't be watching the ceremony so honestly I won't care, but I think Gravity would be a more interesting choice in the long run.