And another year comes to an end. This will be the third official post I've made about the Oscars and what film I believe is going to win. This year was a pretty good year, with a lot of great little films peppered in. Will
Avatar win tonight? Probably, but I'm staying true to
The Hurt Locker, and
Basterds could pull through if the Actors theory holds up. Most categories are locked, with the two toss-ups being Original Screenplay an Picture. So, what are my predictions?
Leading Actor
Last year I coin-flipped and guessed Sean Penn would win, and hurrah, I was right! This year, Jeff Bridges is the clear favorite, and there is no reason he is going to lose. He has tons of love from his acting friends, who gave him a standing ovation at the SAG awards, and he's been cleaning house with every other show. Colin Firth is better, in a complex, layered, and emotional turn in A Single Man. Morgan Freeman embodied Nelson Mandela, and it was a fitting role because Mandela himself told Freeman he would like him to play him in a biopic. George Clooney was once the frontrunner, and has now fallen back to least likely with Jeremy Renner, who was the "surprise" nomination (not really, we all knew it was going to happen). Jeff Bridges, this is yours to lose.
Prediction: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
Supporting Actor
The Academy has a had a fond fascination with serial killers these past couple years, Javier Bardem and Heath Ledger being the last two to win for psychotic characters. This year will be no different, with Christoph Waltz being the clear favorite (and, like Ledger, he has been since the summer), for playing the ruthlessly smart, selfish, and evil Hans Landa. Matt Damon sported a satisfactory South African accent, Woody Harrelson cried, Christopher Plummer was gruff I guess (didn't see this one), and Stanley Tucci was also an evil serial killer. But none of them have had as much heat behind them as Mr. Waltz, who will dance away with this award. If my presumption is correct, this will be the first award presented too, so the lack of suspense will be over with quickly.
Prediction: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds
Leading Actress
There are a lot of interesting performances in this category, but overall leading roles for men and women were weak this year. Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe should be the two duking it out for Best Actress, but Sandra Bullock somehow blasted in front of the competition and is now the clear frontrunner for this award. Admittedly, she gave a pretty good performance and was the only level-headed character in that entire film, but she certainly does not deserve an Oscar for it, not even a nomination (and how The Blind Side is even nominated is beyond me). Meryl Streep is the only one for a potential upset, but I don't see how Bullock can lose at this rate. The Academy loves a biopic performance, of which there are three in this case, so you gotta go with the most popular one (lesson learned from Marion Cotillard two years ago).
Prediction: Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side
Supporting Actress
The last two years this category has alluded me, but this year it is not doing it. Penelope Cruz is up again for Nine, but she is NOT winning this time; Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick are both nominated for their roles in Up in the Air, and they were both very good and should be happy to be there; and Maggie Gyllenhaal was the surprise nomination for Crazy Heart, but that film won't sweep. So, it's down to Mo'Nique, who has had buzz surround her since this film was mentioned way back when last year. Her performance was powerful and one of the best things about that movie, and it'll be a pleasure to see her win. Any other winner would be a huge upset.
Prediction: Mo'Nique in Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire
Animated Feature
Pixar is in it again, and is going to win for sure, but it should be noted that this is the first year there are five nominees. Coraline is overrated if you ask me, but still decent; Fantastic Mr. Fox is a delightful film and a possible upset; The Princess and the Frog is only here because it brings back traditional animation; and The Secret of Kells is the little-wtf film that nobody has heard of, but I hear is quite good. If voters were required to see all the films I would put money on Kells, but since it is one of the popularity contest categories, the clear winner will be the best of the lot, Up, though I feel the Academy is tiring of handing this one to Pixar all the time. Missing from this category: Ponyo.
Prediction: Up
Art Direction
I've only seen one of the nominees in this category, and it is also the one that will likely win. Avatar's design is massive and impressive, realizing lush forests and a futuristic space world. Sherlock Holmes could be upset, but I think this is a locked category.
Prediction: Avatar
Cinematography
This category is a toss-up: Avatar, Hurt Locker, and The White Ribbon all could win this award. Avatar I disqualify because 60% of the movie is created by the computer, so a lot of that wasn't lighting by the DP anyways. White Ribbon has sumptuous black and white photography that is visually arresting and could very well pull in a sneak attack win. But, I think this is Hurt Locker's category, with it's beautiful imagery of slo-mo bomb explosions. Harry Potter stands no chance.
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Costume Design
The hard lesson I have learned over the past two years is never defy the Costume Drama (Elizabeth and The Duchess won the prior two years), so I will go with The Young Victoria as my pick for the Costume award. Though watch, now Nine or Doctor Parnassus will win this award and throw off my lesson to myself. Bright Star, the other costume movie, could very will win as well, but it's not about royalty, so its costumes are more plain and less extravagant.
Prediction: The Young Victoria
Directing
This one should be a shoe-in lock for Bigelow. If Cameron wins, fuck the Academy. Bigelow made a better, more courageous film anyways. And it's time to end the 81-year history of white men winning this award. It's an historical moment for the Academy, and I don't see them voting the other way. Bigelow.
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Documentary Feature
I don't pretend to know anything about this category since voters have to view all five films to cast a choice. I have seen two of them, and of the two the better made film is The Cove: it is exciting, dangerous, and conveys an important message. I don't see any other film in that category beating it; it's simply too damn entertaining. But, again, I haven't seen three of the nominees, so what do I know?
Prediction: The Cove
Documentary Short
I actually have seen one of the films nominated in this category, China's Unnatural Disaster, and that was a powerfully made film about a terrible disaster and the government's unwillingness to flinch on the matter. But another film, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (unseen by me) is the clear frontrunner because it deals with an issue that directly effects us as Americans. I can't judge the quality of the film, but it probably connected the most with Academy voters and will most likely win. But again, I haven't seen four of these films.
Prediction: The Last Truck: Closing of GM Plant
Film Editing
I feel this category is locked. What District 9 is doing here I'm not certain, but if The Hurt Locker wins, it should indicate a Best Pic victory (though who knows). If Avatar wins, then it will take Best Picture. Or not. Editing doesn't necessarily correlate, but one assumes it should. Still, Hurt Locker relies a lot on precise editing to build tension and heighten those explosion scenes, and it worked very well, so there's no reason it shouldn't win.
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
Foreign Language Film
Another category I'm not going to pretend to know anything about, since I have only seen The White Ribbon. A Prophet is supposed to be excellent, but I'm going to pick El Secreto De Sus Ojos to win. Why? No reason, but I'm not confident in any of the films so it seems like a good option. Remember The Lives of Others and Departures upsetting? Well, Kris Tapley predicted those upsets and is predicting Ojos, so I'm just going with him.
Prediction: El Secreto de Sus Ojos
Makeup
With only three nominees, the winner should be clear. Il Divo and The Young Victoria are nothing fantastic, but Star Trek had that all green lady. So it wins.
Prediction: Star Trek
Original Score
Michael Giacchino will finally get his due with his beautiful score for Up, though Fantastic Mr. Fox deserves recognition for its fun score as well. The Hurt Locker and Avatar were unmemorable, and Sherlock Holmes...I don't know it. But Up deserves it, and will get it.
Prediction: Up
Original Song
No strong showings this year, unlike the past two years when we got Jai Ho and Falling Slowly. The Wear Kind from Crazy Heart will undoubtedly win, since the others are all unmemorable (especially Princess and the Frog). Go T Bone!
Prediction: "The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart) from Crazy Heart"
Short Film, Animated
I saw all the films this year, and wrote a review of all them already. I'm going with Logorama, although you should know that A Matter of Loaf and Death, the new Wallace & Gromit short, is the favorite and probably will win. But Logorama was something unique and very, very different. And I lot of people liked it, so I'm predicting an upset on Nick Park this year. Logorama all the way!
Prediction: Logorama
Short Film, Live Action
Again, I've seen all the films and already written a review on them. None of them were particularly strong, but you can probably go with The Door, since it is about Chernobyl and tugs at the heart strings. The others ranged from OK to good, but none stand out as Oscar bait more then The Door.
Prediction: The Door
Sound Editing & Mixing
They are different categories, but I'm lumping them together because my prediction for them both stands the same. Yes, they are very different arts, but I think Avatar is the clear winner for both. Of course, Hurt Locker could upset in the Mixing section, but otherwise this is Avatar's to lose.
Prediction for both: Avatar
Visual Effects
Locked. Avatar. Go home.
Prediction: Avatar
Screenplay, Adapted
This one is a lock for Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner. Up in the Air perfectly balances a multitude of themes and plots, and it wouldn't have been possible without a great script. I would love an In the Loop upset, but Up in the Air deserves it.
Prediction: Up in the Air
Screenplay, Original
This category is one of the biggest toss-ups, between the Guild-favorite Hurt Locker and Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds. Basterds didn't make a show at the WGA because Tarantino himself is not a member, which is fair. It just makes it harder for us prognosticators to decide who will win since we don't know which way the writers themselves lean. But the actors really like Basterds, and Tarantino has a gift for building long dialogue scenes, so I don't see this one losing. Hurt Locker works more on a visual level then a script level, and I'm sure Basterds is a more entertaining read.
Prediction: Inglourious Basterds
Best Picture
This year, we have ten films nominated for Best Picture, and a new preferential system that could really fuck with the results. Three movies stand-out as the possible winners. First, Avatar, which has made more then $2.6 billion worldwide, which makes it obviously a favorite with the public, but it lacks support from both the Writers and the Actors (it has no nominations in either of those categories). Cameron himself has said give Bigelow director, but give us Picture. However, I feel Picture should mean that best overall elements, and Avatar is purely a technical achievement. Now, Hurt Locker, which has been cleaning house at the major guild awards; the only thing it has going against it is that it only made $13 million domestic during its run in theaters. However, it is a very popular rental item, and has been listed for the last month on Netflix as "Long wait" for availability. People are watching it. Finally, Inglourious Basterds, the dark horse that took the SAG ensemble award. It definitely has strong acting, strong writing, and strong directing. It's a terrific film, and one that I bet could upset and actually take the award. However, it is also a fanboy film, and most of the members probably vote by what is most popular. However, if people try and fuck Avatar and Hurt Locker over by putting them at 10, then Basterds could win. At the end of the day, though, I'm going with Hurt Locker; it will probably lose, but it is the best film of all the nominees and one of the best of the decade.
Prediction: The Hurt Locker
And there you have it. I believe the show starts at 8:30/5:30 ET/PT, live all across the nation (and I guess in Australia). I'll come back after the show and tell how well I did. The worse I do, the drunker I'll be though.
LET'S DO THIS!